Alex Smith will thrive in K.C.

No one expects Alex to do what the great Joe Montana did.

Another 49er quarterback moves to K.C. following Steve DeBerg, Joe Montana, Steve Bono, and Elvis Gerbac.  In total the 'Niners have received a first, forth, and second round picks over the years for quarterbacks.   

Joe Montana lead the Chiefs in two come from behind playoff victories before losing to the Buffalo Bills in the AFC championship game.  Those were the last two playoff games Kansas City has won.  Can Alex break that streak?  Yes, but it depends on which Alex will show up.  

Alex Smith has had 3 phases of his career:

1: Young and talented but derailed by injuries and institutional inconsistency:  Alex had some early success on a bad team before a shoulder injury derailed him.  He was forced to change offensive coordinators every year, and often teammates.  He never developed the consistency necessary to be good.  In these years I wished San Fransisco drafted Aaron Rogers, much of my family went to Berkeley and I always want to root for Cal alumni.

2: A Limited veteran with a limited system:  These were also known as the Singeltary years.  In these years the 'Niners were clearly talented.  Davis and Gore were clearly excellent weapons, and Crabtree clearly had potential.  The defense should have been awesome.  But the team was clearly over matched from a strategic stand point.  My friends and I would joke that the 'Niners had two plays; Power I run to Gore and the Single Back School Yard pass where Alex draws the routs on his hand in the huddle.  In these years the SF fandom turned against Alex, and after every loss angry drunk men called into local radio stations and called an upstanding member of the community a loser.  In these years I wanted Alex to have a chance to prove these idiots wrong.  I wanted him to have a few good years.  I had respect for Alex as a person in how well he handled the blame coming from failures that were bigger than him. 

Harbaugh brought out the best QB in Alex.

3: Competency in an excellent system:  Harbaugh came to town and everything changed for the 49ers.  Alex was coached to protect the ball and his accuracy and passer rating rose.  Finally we ran some competent play action passes to capitalize on the talent of Davis and Gore.  Alex was a hero in a playoff game.  Everything seemed good for Alex on the surface, but smart fans could see the flaws in his game.  He had accurate completion percentages and avoided turnovers, but much of that was at the expense of having a dynamic offense.  Alex consistently checked down to short safe passes.  The most aggravating play that Alex perfected was the overly safe completion.  An excellent pass allows a receiver to catch and move, but Alex would throw the ball to the safest place--high, low, or behind the receiver--so that the defender could not possibly make a play on the ball, but receiver could not make a play with the ball.  It is not a coincidence that Crabtree emerged as an excellent after the catch player once Kaepernick began throwing him passes.  In this time I wanted the 'Niners to win, but I feared that they would be limited by Alex's favoring safe passes.  

Smith and Charles will make each others jobs easier.

Which Alex Smith will arrive in K.C?  Alex has shown competency when paired with a coach who understands quarterbacks (Reid is as good a QB coach as anyone not named Harbaugh), has an effective run game (Jamaal Charles has a career rushing average of 5.8, which is historically good), and quality blocking (the Chiefs used the first pick in the draft on left tackle Eric Fisher).  Dwayne Bowe is a good weapon at receiver but Alex's success will be about the other pieces.  At the very least Alex will look like the player he was in 2011, a quality quarterback who will not create wins for you, but will not lose games either.  That should be enough for a talented K.C. team to be in the wild card hunt.  If Smith continues to improve on his 2012 play (and connects on some more aggressive passes) expect the Chiefs to win some playoff games soon.  

The Prediction:  Alex Smith will be the starting quarterback who leads the K.C. Chiefs to the playoffs and a playoff win in his time there.  

I am wrong if:  If Alex never wins a playoff game in his K.C. career I will be wrong, and sad, because I like Alex, he seems like a good person.