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| Oden is relevant because he is one of the few people in the world who can do this. |
Money: Greg Oden knows that this might be his last time cashing an NBA paycheck. He knows that his next job will not pay as much as this job, even if he takes the veterans minimum. Financial security for himself and his family is at stake, even as a first overall pick his Portland earnings were limited by the rookie wage scale. It would be hard for anyone in his position to turn down any extra guaranteed money.
Success: For Greg Oden his career has not been a success. He knows it. He knows that his injuries contributed to the early demise of a talented Portland team. He knows he was a very raw player in Portland. He knows he was almost as likely to foul out as post a double double. He knows he can be better, he knows he has the gifts to be an impact player. He wants to play for a team where he can be successful, he wants to play the right number of minutes (not so many as to strain his knees) and where he can master his craft. This success is not about winning games, he won plenty of games in Portland, they were regularly in the playoffs, this success is about becoming a player who can contribute to those wins in a big way (but that big way starts will small improvements and carefully monitored minutes).
Fun: Greg Oden seems like someone who really enjoyed basketball before going to the NBA. He was good at it, and people loved him for it. He was miserable in Portland. He felt he was letting everyone down, all of those people who loved him because he was good now seemed to hate him because he was not producing. More than that, being injured sucks. When a man is young and gifted it is hard to understand how and why his body is betraying him. It creates a mental disconnect between what life is and what it should be. That disconnect is difficult to deal with. I think Greg Oden wants to play someplace where he can enjoy the game like he did in high-school/college. I think he wants to play some place without pressure on him. I think he wants to play as part of a winning team, because on a winning team the pressure will be on the established leaders (if Miami fails to win a title next year is Oden going to be blamed or Bosh/Wade/Lebron, the answer is Lebron, then Bosh, then Wade, even though it is probably Wades fault). Oden really wants to play on a winning team because winning is fun, and he wants to be part of that again.
The Suitors; Money, Success, Fun and the downside:
Dallas Mavericks: Money: The money will be the best in Dallas, which can offer significant without paying the luxury tax. Oden can also cash checks without state income tax.
Success: Oden can find success by playing with Dirk, who will allow Oden to focus on his natural gifts (rebounding and defense) while he develops the raw parts of his game.
Fun: Dallas is likely to win with Oden (playoffs) but not to contend for a title.
Downside: If Dallas can not sign Samuel Dlaembert, then Oden will be their starting center; which brings pressure to produce, pressure to play more minutes (and corresponding pressure on his knees).
Sacramento Kings: Money: Sacramento has enough money to spend to get Oden, but they also have a high income tax (I doubt the marginal tax rate is really a factor in free agent decisions).
Success: In Sacramento Oden can play a back up role, allowing him to compete against weaker smaller bench players and allowing him time to develop his game.
Fun: Oden will not face pressure to win in Sacramento, the fans are excited about the new owners and the arena construction and are relieved to be keeping their team, we know the Kings are a lottery team and any positive development is enough. Oden can take his time and the Sacramento Kings fans will be happy.
Downside: The Kings will lose, and lose a lot. Even worse we are a dysfunctional team, and dysfunction is not fun or conducive to success. Much of that dysfunction left with the Malloffs but our most talented player (Demarcus Cousins) is also our most immature, immaturity that Oden will be practicing against every day.
New Orleans Pelicans: Money: New Orleans has a little more money to offer than Sacramento without going over the cap, and possibly more than Dallas (if Dallas is able to sign Dalembert).
Success: New Orleans has quality power forwards who can play enough center to allow Oden to produce off the bench, but his skill strength and size will be valuable to this roster.
Fun: The Pelicans are a young team that should be improving. These teams are often the most fun to watch, and look like the most fun to be on. There is no pressure to contend and every win is exciting.
Downside: There are not many downsides here. Playing with Anthony Davis will generate comparisons of the number 1 overall picks, especially if one or both continue to struggle at saying healthy.
San Antonio Spurs: Money: According to hoopsHype, San Antonio's roster for 2013 is only $600k more expensive than Sacramento's. Someone is getting ripped off in Sacramento. I read that Miami had an advantage in the Greg Oden sweepstakes because they preserved their mid level exception ($3.18million), and thus could out bid San Antonio who could only offer the veterans minimum ($1.68million) but someone's information must be wrong because San Antonio's current contracts are not much more expensive than a team that just offered $52 million dollars to Andre Iguodala, surely San Antonio can match $3.18 million.
Success: Greg Oden will be able to lean in the best system in basketball from one of the greatest players and professionals ever. Popovich is one of the great teachers in the game, and no team is better at developing talent than San Antonio.
Fun: Winning is fun. High quality basketball is fun.
Downside: Popovich will yell at Oden as he struggles to learn a complex offense that takes most players two years too learn. There is great pressure to win in San Antonio, where every season the only goal is to win another title (but most that pressure will be on Duncan, Parker, Ganobili, and Leonard). Of all teams, the spurs offer the least amount of time on the court. Either Duncan or Splitter are always posted in the center position and Oden will probably only generate meaningful minutes in games that Duncan is resting.
Miami Heat: Money: The mid level exception is good money, and probably around what everyone else is offering.
Success: The Heat can afford to play Oden when and how is best for his recovery as their dynamic system does not require a center against most teams, and Haslem and Andersen have already developed chemestry with the Heat team. The Heat will be invested in developing Oden because they need more size against a quickly improving eastern conference and if they face San Antonio again (who I believe they were lucky to beat).
Fun: The heat are a fun regular season team. They are no longer being punished by fans and the media for the decision. They are able to focus on playing good fast paced basketball for the regular season, and Oden will get to be a part of a fun winning team (and it bares repeating, if the Heat lose, the pressure will always fall on Lebron James).
Downside: Will Oden be afraid of being called a front runner? The Miami pace is not the best fit for Oden, and it would be a struggle to play Oden along side Anderson.
The prediction: I believe Oden will sign with the Heat because they have made positive and consistent inquiries into his availability. I think that the guaranteed money from Miami will be close to the same as for the other teams. I think Oden believes he can contribute to a fun and successful team in Miami while developing his game. I think that Oden knows that the game will be simplified playing with the space that the forwards Lebron and Bosh generate. Mostly I think Oden has wanted to play for Miami all along (which I can understand).
I am wrong if: If Oden does not sign in Miami I will be wrong. This is a real prediction (I though Howard would go to Houston, but the LA article was more fun to write), but not one I am very confident in now that I have looked at what San Antonio, Dallas, and New Orleans can offer. I would not judge Greg Oden if he took the most guaranteed money he could get, regardless of fit, but I think that the best fit for his career (if he can stay healthy) is to learn the nuances of the game in San Antonio.
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