Sunday, August 25, 2013

The last NFL playoff prediction and the purpose of this blog.

"If the home team plays better and scores more than the
visiting team they will win, now can I have my enormous
paycheck?"
The title of this blog is "A Nobody Predicts."  I picked this title to play off the double meaning that I am a nobody in the sports world, I have no journalism credentials, no coaching experience, I only played sports at the high school and recreational levels (and a small high school at that), but also that I want to talk about the parts that 'nobody' is talking about.  Yes, everyone is talking about steroids in baseball and cycling but we largely ignore how obvious it is that no one tests for HGH in the NFL.  I am not saying that I will only discuss topic that no one on the hundreds of sports shows and thousands of sports blogs are not covering, that would leave me nothing to write about, but we all see many interesting angles to these popular stories and wonder why particular questions are not asked by conventional media channels.  For example: when Andre Iguodala signed with the Warriors most of the media noted that he will help them defensively (so did I) but I felt I brought an interesting perspective by discussing what Iguodala's instincts bring to the Warriors offensively, he should fit that offense in a way that generates beautifully flowing offensive basketball; and I did not hear or read one commentator discuss that part of the Iguodala signing.  

In my last two posts I kept true to the 'predicts' part of my blog, but I lost the 'nobody' aspect.  Were they still fun to write?  Kinda.  Can people still enjoy them?  Absolutely, I read about 3,437 of these prediction articles every off season, and I enjoy a good 145 of them (yes, those are the absolute exact numbers).  The problem is that those last two articles are just another set of meaningless predictions that do not say anything (I really enjoyed the article on how Brady owns his division, I feel that the media's celebration of greatness ignores the relatively easy path to dominance Brady has faced, even if he helped create that easy path by beating the ever loving snot out of his competition every year).  

That being said, I have one division left to predict, the AFC South, and you would not believe it but I predict a team will win it.  I will try to find something interesting to say for each AFC South team. 
AFC South:  This is probably the weakest division in football (but we all thought something similar about the NFC West in 2012, look how that turned out).  The Jaguars and Titans look to be seriously short on talent, the Colts are still rebuilding even though grit and luck (no pun intended) pulled them into the playoffs way to early last year.  The Texans are loaded, but still have some holes and injury risks.  
Jacksonville:  Will they be good enough to attract fans and keep from moving to LA?  No.  I think they will continue to disappointing on the field and in rating/attendance, which prompts their move to LA, which they should do.  I dislike LA teams, but sports are more fun when there is a villain, and Jacksonville is not making use of their team.
Every year a team like the Titans makes a big leap in the
standings without making a big change to the roster.
Tennessee:  This is a team that can make some noise with some good blocking, luck, and improvement from Jake Locker at quarterback. This team is under the national radar because they do not do much exceptionally well (over the last few years they have only been a decent running team), but the difference between ok and good in the NFL is minuscule, and the Titans are the kind of team that can surprise people (like the Colts did in 2012).  I do not expect them too, but it could happen.
Indianapolis:  I covered Indy and Andrew Luck fairly extensively (for me) already.  The short version is that while Luck improves as a quarterback the Colts will not be as lucky as they were last season and fall short of the playoffs.  This will cause the media to overreact and say that Griffin and Wilson are better, when there is not nearly enough evidence to prove that (yet).
I work an increadably demanding job, and I am one of
the 20 best in the world at it, yet people call me a loser.
How does that make sense? 
Houston:  As the most talented team in the division they should be the lone playoff representative of the
division.  The problem with Houston is that they are as talented as any team, but a team with a caretaker quarterback must be significantly superior (or lucky) to win a championship, not just as talented.  The Seahawks, Broncos, and 'Niners have all the supporting talent that the Texans have coupled with far superior quarterbacks.  The 'Niners did not make it to the superbowl until they upgraded from a caretaker QB too Kaepernick, who is a real difference maker (I do not mean this as an insult to Schaub or Smith, both are respectable men who are far greater at their professions than I am at mine).  

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