Difficult NFL predictions: the coin flip.

"It's my division, give it to me!"

A nice result of creating my arbitrary ranking system was that it allowed me to see more clearly how I felt about each team.  Without the system I would have spent way too much time trying to convince myself into and out of picking every team in the NFC East as a division winner.  With the score sheet I could see rather definitively that not only did I feel that the New York Giants were the best team in that division, but that I projected them as one of the best teams in the league.  This did not help in the NFC South or North where I gave the two top teams the same score.

NFC North:  Aaron Rogers could own the NFC North the way Brady and the Patriots own the AFC east, except that his competition is selfishly competent.   Since Rogers became a starter in 2008 he has missed the playoffs once (his first season as a starter) but the best non packer team won at least ten games (The list: Vikings 10, Vikings with Favre 12, Bears 11, Lions 10, and the Vikings with 10 again).  Rogers was forced to the wildcard his first three playoff starts (including the Superbowl run).  The competitive nature of this division makes predicting this division difficult.  None the less I predict that the Lions improve (but their defense is still a sieve) and the Vikings regress, but they make it difficult for a team to run away with a lead in the division.  This means either the Packers or Bears will win the division and make the playoff and the other will fail to reach the wildcard in a talent rich NFC.

Turnovers are largely random events, but some teams
are able to beat the odds and generate their own every
year.  The bears are one of those teams.

Chicago:  I did not expect to evaluate Chicago as strongly as I did.  Their offensive line (even with Kyle Long) should be trouble and Cutler is quality but risky quarterback.  But their strength at running back, receiver, defensive line and corner back (two 2012 pro bowl selections) pulled them up a tie with the Packers in talent (to my eyes).  

Green Bay:  Green Bay's excellent scores at quarterback (10) wide receiver (4) and defensive line (7 including the excellent pass rush from Clay Mathews) are countered by average scores across the rest of the team and low scores for an offensive line that creates almost no push for running backs and allows far too much punishment to reach the Franchise Quarterback (consistently hit among the most in the league).  

The Coin Flip:  Packers VS Bears, 50pts vs 50pts.  The Bears are supremely talented, especially across the defense.  They are difficult to back because they rely so much on their opportunistic defense and special to supplement scoring for their offense that has traditionally been hamstrung by a dysfunctional offensive line.  The problem is that scoring from the defense and special teams is statistically erratic.  The bears may be one of the leagues top teams in non offensive scoring (A league best 9 defensive touchdowns in 2012, second best at 6 in 2011) but those scores often come in one blowout game and the offense must sputter without help when the ball is not bouncing their way (5 of those 9 scores happened from weeks 3 to 5 helping power the Bears to a 4-1 start, which they squandered when the defensive scoring slowed down).  Cutler's greatest strength is his ability to generate offense while being pounded by defenders, and when the punishment is too much and he misses time things are not pretty for Chicago fans.  Because of the Bears erratic nature I have to pick the more 'dependable' Packers.  The Packers offensive line is flawed, and their defense will get shredded by teams with multidimensional offenses (as will 25 of the NFL's 32 defenses) but Aaron Rogers will keep the team competitive so long as he is able to play.  Because of that I am taking the boring pick and selecting the Packers.  

NFC South:  The Saints and Falcons have been battling for dominance of this division since the Falcons drafted Matt Ryan.  The Panthers and Buccaneers have made moves to try and crash the playoffs, but they will probably fall short.  The Panthers are too limited at defensive line, corner back, safety, and offensive line (though have an excellent QB and several excellent Linebackers).  The Buccaneers have all the talent necessary after winning the off-season with the Desean Goldson signing and the Revis trade, but after watching returns on investment from the big splash moves of Buffalo in 2012 and Philidelphia's "Dream team" in 2011 I want to see the Bucks before I place any faith in their revamped defense.  They will be good enough to cost the Saints and Falcons a win or two, which will help one of them fall short in what looks like a very competitive wild card race.

Receivers who make plays like this do not make the QB, but
they do make his job easier.

Atlanta:  The Falcons have the most talented receiving crew in the NFL with a pair of superstars supported by the exemplary route running of Tony Gonzalez.  They better get open quickly because I do not see Matt Ryan having much time behind a shaky offensive line.  Defensively the falcons were decent at all levels, but lacking in play makers.  They are hoping a defensive heavy draft will make them more dynamic defensively the way Julio Jones made them more dynamic offensively.
New Orleans:  The Saints looked mistake prone team with lopsided talent at times in 2012, but they also looked like a dangerous team on the hunt for a wildcard spot once they found a way to win, then they started to lose again.  Which team is the real saints?  I hate questions like that, both were the real Saints, and that is who they will be again.  They will be more consistent on both sides of the ball with an invigorated Sean Payton back on the sideline, but they are still a lopsided team with holes in their secondary that needs to blitz to create pressure (creating more openings for good quarterbacks/coaches to exploit).  The Saints are transitioning to a 3-4 base defense, I doubt they will have the talent in house for the transition (anecdotally these things take a couple of years, but someone could write an advanced stats article on the effects of switching defenses) but the new base defense should allow the Saints to better disguise their blitzes and coverage, which in a shootout--and there will be shootouts--could create needed turnovers.  With an offense like the Saints have they do not need an elite defense, just one that gets enough stops for the offense to win the game.

In 2012 Brees passed for 5000 yards and broke the record for
consecutive games with a touchdown pass.  With Payton back
he will be even better (likely by handing the ball off more).

The Coin Flip:  Saints Vs Falcons, 49pts vs 49pts.  I look at the Falcons and I wonder "are they really only a 49?  Should I give them a few more points on the offensive and defensive lines?  The Bears and Packers have offensive lines that are just as questionable and they are ranked higher."  The difference is I do not trust the Falcons Pass rush.  The Bears and Packers can get to the opposing quarterback.  I did rank the Falcons better than the Saints in terms of pure talent, though the Saints are better on the offensive line--especially in the interior.  I scored the Saints high in terms of X-Factor because I believe that the return of Sean Payton means something.  This is not a rational metric based argument (none of my predictions are really, but I like to lie to myself that they are), it is a flawed emotional argument but I expect the Saints to be extra sharp under Payton who will be an improvement in terms of strategy and stability where the saints seemed overwhelmed last season.