The Colts game show how Kaepernick must improve.

Up until today I have been too disappointed in the play of the 49ers to write my own analysis of the failure of the Colts game. (also, until today I have been too busy), but I came across this gem from Niners Nation.  They do an excellent job of illustrating how Kaepernick fell into what I just decided to call the running quarterback curse.  This is when an athletic quarterback reads one route, looks at the pass rush, and decides to scramble before exhausting all passing opportunities and without keeping their eyes down field.

In the past I have praised Kaepernick's ability to keep his eyes down the field while extending a play (which is infinitely more difficult for the defense to stop because the linebackers must stay in coverage but hold contain).  K had demonstrated this best while out running the pass rush towards the sideline, on those plays he only had to know he had enough space behind him to throw.  Against the Colts he was forced to move from his spot inside the pocket, but not allowed to escape to the sideline.  Now K had pressure surrounding him, and his eyes moved from reading the coverage too looking for an escape.  In the process he missed many open receivers like these two on a play where he was sacked.  On this play it looks like K was simply sitting in the pocket and missed both players, but by this time he had scrambled right and been turned back too the pocket by excellent Colts contain (discipline I wish the 'Niners defense could demonstrate).

Great quarterbacks are able to feel the defensive pressure without looking at it, and find the open man as they ran out of time.  Montana used to describe it as feeling color, when the colors in his peripheral vision around him would shift from red (the 'Niners Colors) too other he would quickly dump off the ball because he knew that his blocking had broken down.

Everything about Kaepernick indicates that he will overcome this habit and learn to see the defense even as he buys time.  He will learn that less is more when it comes escaping pressure and use subtle movements in the pocket to maximize his blocking before he runs (the way slow quarterbacks like Brady and Manning do).  Steve Young had to learn the same lessons, and he did.

This is not to say the loss to the Colts is entirely on K.  If the receivers were able to get open before the pressure forced K to scramble this whole issue would be moot.  If the blocking schemes had held up the same is true.  Roman and Harbaugh could have used more run and play action to take pressure off of Kaepernick.

Thank you Niners Nation for the photos I stole. (click the link for a gallery of missed opportunities)

With 1 miss known, late week 3 bold predictions.

The Eagles will beat a superior Chiefs team.  The Chiefs are a superior team than the Eagles because of their more dependable quarterback and a vastly superior defense.  Unfortunately for Andy Reid it takes time to prepare for the unique style of play the Eagles employ, and they play on Thursday.  Normally Thursday games are ugly defensive battles, but the Eagles will break that trend by exploiting the defensive mistakes their pace, system (and lack of time to prepare) force.
...ouch.  I was right about their being forced mistakes, but those were 5 turnovers forced by the Chiefs defense (most notably their fearsome pass rush).

The Jaguars will not cross the 50 yard line while being shut out.  It is not a bold prediction to expect the SeaHawks to crush the lowly Jaguars, but shut outs are rare in the NFL, and for a team to not once cross the 50 is far more rare.  The Seattle 12th man (who as a 'Niner fan I borderline loathe) will perform the impossible by making the Jacksonville offense look even more inept than in the first two weeks.

Tampa Bay will defeat New England (a seven point favorite).  I love picking against the Patriots, especially because I  do not gamble and just like watching New England struggle.  The Patriots were lucky in their two wins and the Buccaneers were unlucky in their two losses.  The Buccaneers held the Saints too 16 total points.  Drew Brees is only a sightly inferior quarterback to Brady and his available weapons vastly outclass the Patriots the receivers the patriots were able to find in the couch cushions, and they were held to only 16 points.  I know that members of the sports media are circling the Josh Freeman Greg Schiano rivalry the way sharks circle a wounded tuna but this team is a couple of good plays away from all of that infighting being nothing more than "communication issues that we worked through."  If the Tampa defense plays 80% as well as they did last week and their offense plays 10% better than this game will be an upset that should not surprise anyone.

No, the NFL has not 'solved' the Eagles' offence, and the Read Option is not dead.

The solution to any offense.

The news is in, the read option is dead and Chip Kelly's offence is solved.

Here is his how you beat the read option:

• Have your outside linebacker clobber the quarterback whenever he is a run threat.  Coaches will protect The Franchise and instruct the QB to hand the ball off, turning the Read Option into a Inside run with a Fake Option.  

Here is how you beat the Oregon/Eagles/Chip Kelly offense:

• Have your offense eat up the clock, this gives your defense time to rest.  
• Use Linebackers and a Roaming safety to limit Quick Passes (screens, slants, ins, outs, etc). 
• Pressure Vick/The Quarterback, this prevents the deep passes that exploit a 1 deep defense, makes finding the proper read near impossible, and forces offensive errors.  

With perfect execution of scheme even a skinny
short guy can be impossible to defend.

That all works, and has worked to start the season, but it is an oversimplification of the Read Option and Chip Kelly's System.  In an excellent StI/MMQB article about the NFL teams studying how Stanford defensive coordinator Derek Mason schemed to stop the Oregon offense the Read Option was compared to a Pick and Roll in basketball; and the description is apt.  The beauty of the Pick and Roll is that it forces multiple defenders to make quick coordinated decisions, and every choice the defense makes creates a different opening for the offense.  

This is how the read option and pick and roll offense are correlated: 

• Due to a Screen by the power forward (extra blockers freed by making a linebacker the read man) the running back or point guard has an advantage over the defender responsible for him.  If the help defender stays on his man (the Outside Linebacker keeps contain and stays with the QB) then the point guard/running back takes the easy path forward (into the second level of defense).  
• If the first help defender (the linebacker being read) commits to stopping the point guard (chases the running back) then the screen man is left open (the QB keeps the ball and runs), this is how Clay Mathews and the Packers were torched by Kaepernick and the Niners in the playoffs.  
• The help defender can 'show' help defense, buying time for the primary defender to get in the driving lane without fully leaving the player he is responsible for.  This underneath defense leaves an opening for a 3 point shot, a high risk high reward option.  This is what several NFL teams have done to counter the read option.  The OLB does not fully commit to the hand off or the QB keeper run but focuses instead on collapsing the space the offense has to run their play.  In this way the OLB is 'showing' against the run but still able to recover and keep the Quarterback from turning the edge if he chooses to keep the football.  Soon offenses will adjust to hit the equivalent of the 3 point shot; while the OLB is focused on defending two running lanes the quarterback will simply read what is avalible and throw a pass into a zone the linebacker is typically responsible for.  

Of course this over simplifies both offenses and how they will evolve.  There are countless small shifts in how to run the pick and roll and read option, and for every choice the offense forces the first wave of defenders to make there are counter adjustments by the second level defenders, and those adjustments open up new openings for the offense.  

Those players are not decoys, each one is ready for the
ball (in this play it goes to the Tight End Celek).

The future of the Read Option is the Eagles Offense, and it does not require a running quarterback.  We have falsely associated the Read Option with mobile quarterbacks running.  A "Read" is simply the offense examining where the defense is weakest, and an "Option" play is simply one with more than one designed outcome.  The immobile Tom Brady can "read" the defense at the "mesh point" and chose to hand the ball off to a running back or pass the ball, all depending on what the defense is giving him (without ever being a running threat).  The Eagles already employ several of these plays.  On any given Eagles offensive play a Slot Receiver or Tight End will cross behind the linebackers while a Wide Receiver sets for a quick screen.  This gives Vick the option to hand the ball to Shady McCoy, run the ball himself, pass to Celek across the middle, hit DeSean Jackson for a screen or (if there is time) fling a pass deep to Jason Avant.  Somewhere lost in all of that action is an offensive player with an advantageous position on his defender.  The harder the defense tries to take away any single option the more the other options are open.  

The only option a defense has is the take away the easy reads, send pressure after the quarterback, and hope that they make a mistake before you do.  On Thursday the Eagles made the mistakes, and their 5 turnovers undid 431 yards of offensive production.  

With minor tweaks this touchdown run could have also
been a touchdown pass.  Come on Greg Roman, how hard
would the 'Niners be to defend if every Gore run could
turn into a pass whenever the linebackers committed.

Jacksonville needs a savior at quarterback.

"If only I could do something to buy some time to throw."

Two weeks into the 2013 season and it is clear that Blaine Gabbertt and Chad Henne are not the answer at quarterback in Jacksonville, but their is someone who can inject life into their offence.

Their savior is a former NCAA champion, a powerful runner who can buy time behind the limited Jacksonville line.  Pryor has shown Jacksonville first hand what a duel threat quarterback can with limited offensive weapons. This type of mobility can help with many of Jacksonville's offensive struggles, but the Jaguar coaches are afraid to bring him in.  They do not want to change their system for a running quarterback who struggles with accuracy and executing a complex offensive system.

I understand their hesitations, but when your incumbent quarterbacks also struggle with accuracy and execution a little mobility can make something good happen, or at least avoid some embarrassing plays.

"Nope, I am not any better."

Detractors will say "he could not earn a cushy safe job backing up a hall of fame quarterback when the only competition was a disappointing project backup."  That is true, but unfair.  He had a limited time to learn a complex system designed for a hall of fame quarterback with an encyclopedic knowledge of football.  This system was designed with one of the most accurate passers in league history in mind.  No free agent will could thrive in a system designed around that kind of accuracy. Chad Henne and Blane Gabbert would have been cut too.

Plus, the quarterback to save Jacksonville has had NFL success, he has lead a team to the playoffs, he has played in the pro-bowl.  The season is still early, the Jaguars do not need to be a complete embarrassment, they just need to sign Vince "Hall of Fame" Young.

"Seriously, I am way better than those guys"

Week Two Predictions: The lucky, unlucky, and ugly.

Pictured: The Mastermind.

The Lucky: New York Jets at New England: Will the wounded Patriots give the Jets the window they need to win?  No they will not.  The Jets will play excellent defense, and Brady will appear flustered and frustrated with limited time to throw and weapons to hit.  The Jets will be equally limited offensively as they have almost no offensive talent.  Rex Ryan is not a good coach, but he is an amazing defensive coordinator.  Sadly, the Jets do not have the talent to compete with Brady.  The Patriots will win a battle of field goals by scoring the games only touchdown.
The Prediction: 16-9 New England.

Aaron Rogers is thiiisssss good.

The Unlucky:  Washington at Green Bay: A good team will fall 0-2.  The Packers held their run defense tough and limited San Francisco's vaulted run offense to under 100 yards only to be shredded by Kaepernick's arm and Bolden's unnaturally strong hands.  Washington will hope to emulate San Francisco's passing success.  Mike McCarthy and the Packers are smart enough to stick to the game plan, limit the run game, and force the rusty Griffin to beat them with his arm.  Griffin supporters look to the second half comeback as evidence that he will be better in game two, but that was against a defense with lesser talent limiting itself to safe formations as they looked to maintain a lead.  The Packers are more talented and will not be as passive as the Eagles were in the second half.  Also, Aaron Rogers is really really good.
The Prediction: 35-27 Green Bay

He can run, but can he win?

The Ugly: Jacksonville at Oakland: This was projected to be a match up of two of the three worst teams in the league.  Raiders looked dangerous enough in defeat to almost ruin the ugly narrative, but there is still enough ugly left in these two teams to scare away viewers.  Jacksonville's run game gets the chains moving against an underwhelming raiders defense, and they focus their defense on keeping Pryor in the pocket.  This should be enough for the Jaguars to win, but the raiders outclass the only team in the league that they can outclass.  Pryor makes enough passes from the pocket and breaks contain at a few crucial moments to put up the 20 points needed to beat the punch-less Jacksonville offense.
The Prediction: 20-13 Oakland.

Last week I was 0-2 in long shot predictions (but the Bills did beat the spread).  None of these are long shots, lets see how I do with easier targets.  

Sports, Tolerance, and the Washington Racial Slurs.

Seen here about to integrate himself and end-zone..maybe,
I have no idea what game this picture is from.

"For eighteen minutes the Redskins were enjoying equal rights with the Clevland Browns yesterday, in the sense that there was no score in the contest. Then it suddenly became unequal in favor of the Browns, who brought along Jim Brown, their rugged colored fullback from Syracuse. From 25 yards out, Brown was served the ball by Milt Plum on a pitch-out and he integrated the Redsins' goal line with more than deliberate speed, perhaps exceeding the famous Supreme Court decree. Brown fled the 25 yards like a man in an uncommon hurry and the Redskins' goal line, at least, became interracial."--Shirley Povich, Washington Post, 1960.

The Washington Racial Slurs have a sad history with race. They considered themselves the "Team of the South" and in the 1962 season they were the last team in the NFL to integrate. Team owner George Preston Marshall refused integration until the Kennedy administration threatened to ban the Slurs from playing home games in their new D.C. stadium (which was technically owned by the department of the interior).

Can you see how outraged these fans are at having to root
for a black player.

This sad history of intolerance was possible because a culture of ignorance allowed the team to operate this way. Today movies like 42 (or for football Remember the Titans) illustrate how sports can help us overcome entrenched bias and see minority athletes as people. These 'feel good' narratives gloss over the prevailing sentiment giving us a feeling of these struggles being something from the past. When the inspirational music plays we as an audience feel that we have overcome racism, which is simply not true. Things are much better than they were in the 1960, but in too many ways the same culture of ignorance allows for continued discrimination, but in more subtle ways.

Charles P. Pierce wrote an excellent article about The Eagles win over the "Ethnic Degradations" and how the NFL quickly absorbs all new schemes. Interwoven in his narrative was the lampooning of the Washington team name. This started my thinking on how important sports are to social tolerance, and how sad the legacy is in our nations capital. His article (and Peter Kings recent stance on how he will not use the Washington team name) reminded me how important it was for journalists like Shirley Povich to take aim in their writing against the prevalent culture of ignorance.

Using the term Redskins is not as obviously negative as refusing integration, but it is an insult. We would not tolerate a team to be called the "Fags," "Wet-Backs," "Niggers," "Pimps," or "Hood Rats." That is what we are doing by calling Washington's team "The Redskins." This is not a respectful term. The Chiefs and Braves and Seminoles are each a celebration of a part of Native culture. Chief and Brave are translations for Native language words with respectful meanings. The Seminole tribe regularly votes that they appreciate how Florida State uses their name and legacy.

Florida State: doing it right.

Washington has a long and proud football tradition. I believe that their tradition has much more good than bad. I do not want that tradition destroyed when they change their name, I want that tradition improved. I believe the best name that Washington could adopt is Chesapeake. As the Washington Chesapeake, Washington Chesapeakes, or Washington Chesapeake Braves the franchise could keep their colors, symbols, and traditions while changing their association from one of disrespect to honor.

Debunking one NFL overreaction article.

Ben Cohen wrote a piece I saw on Yahoo asking: "Started 0-1?: Your Season is Basically Over."  The article goes on to point out that only 8 champions have lost their first game of the season, and only 3 of the last 10 champions have been able to overcome a loss in the opening week.

The author egregiously ignores simple statistics to generate an article that will capitalize on the public's history of overreacting to the results at the beginning of the season (hoping to get more traffic to his article).

Since the NFL has expanded to a 16 game schedule the combined regular season record of NFL champions is 380-100 or .791.  The record of future champions in the opening week is 38-8-1, or .819 (38.5wins/47games going back slightly longer to the beginning of the super bowl era, not the 16 game format).  It should be expected that those teams won at nearly the same rate, they are (mostly) the exact same teams.  Future champions are going to win the opening game around 80% of their opening games, just like they are going to win 80% of their games in total.  

To the fans of the teams that lost in the first week, keep your head up, it happens to 1 in 5 champions (the same should be true if you pick any week in the season...except the playoffs, no champion lost in the playoffs).

The "prediction:"  The NFL champion of this season will win between 10 and 15 games in the regular season.
I am wrong if:  There is a perfect season, or a good team struggles to 9-7 only to have key players return to full health for the playoffs.  Those are both very unlikely.

The Oakland Raiders will be historically bad, but they will win a game.

Some Raiders Fans hope Terrelle Pryor can lift the Raiders
beyond their limited talent.  Most Raiders fans are
hopeing for Jadeveon Clowney or Teddy Bridgewater.

They Raiders will be terrible this year, and they need to be.  They are done patching themselves together with duct tape move and are accepting a year of painful losses in order to build with future draft picks and cap space.  This is a good thing, and well covered by other writers.

What is not being covered (too much) is the Raiders potential to go without a win this season.  Because preseason writing is all about optimism the focus has (rightfully) been on contenders, teams that hope to be contenders, or the juicy struggles of big market teams (see Tebow, Hernandez, and the Jets).  But a few sports writers did mention that they are the best (or worst) shot to go winless since the lions did it in 2008.  Will the Raiders be so bad in 2013 as to not win any games?  

This list is the Raiders schedule and my (completely made up) odds of a raider victory.  By the end of the season I will look back at the odds I gave these teams and laugh, as teams collapse and rise unpredictably.

For as long as Peyton is a Bronco, these games should be hard for Raiders
fans to watch.

At Colts 15%

Vs Jaguars 40%

At Broncos 5%

Vs Washington 10%

Vs Chargers 25%

At Chiefs 10%

Vs Steelers 15%

Vs Eagles 20%

At Giants 5%

At Texans 5%

Vs Titans 20%

At Cowboys 10%

Vs Jets 50%

Vs Chiefs 15%

At Chargers 20%

Vs Broncos 5%

I believe that in the NFL a team always has a 5% chance of pulling an upset (that means that in the worst mismatches Goliath wins 19 out of 20 battles).  Those are not good odds, but every year we see a team like Arizona beat a team like the Patriots (Arizona had an exceptional defense to help pull it off).  I see four such games for the Raiders; At Giants, at Texans, and two against the Broncos.

I see two teams that are almost as bad as Oakland: the Jets and Jaguars.  The Jets still have a great defensive coach and the Jaguars have a great running back, if those games were on the road the Raiders odds of winning would be even lower.

The Chargers also represent a good chance for an Oakland win.  Divisional games are always hard to predict because of familiarity.  Also, I expect the Chargers to be bad.  The Raiders will only need a few lucky breaks to beat the Chargers, and they have two chances to do it.

Every other team somewhere between better than the Raiders, or much better than the Raiders, with various long odds.

Where do my made up odds leave us?
The sum of the percentages converted to decimal is 2.7, saying that I project the raiders to win an average of 2.7 games based on my made up odds (I did the same thing for the 49ers and projected them to win 12.35 games).  Even with their bad projections to win any individual game (the best odds I gave the raiders were 50% at home vs the Jets) 2.7 is a much higher projection than 0.

How hard would it be for the Raiders to win zero games based on my projections?  Pretty damn hard.  If I take the product of the expected losses (1 - projected win percentage) for the entire season the result is the projected odds of a winless season, for the Raiders this is 4.2% (For the 'Niners it was 3.75891E-12, or 3 out of a hundred billion).

So if you are looking to bet that the Raiders are not going to win a game, you should only take that bet if you think the Raiders odds of losing each game is significantly worse than my meager evaluations, or your returns are 20 to 1 or better (20 to 1 returns would be equal to a 5% chance of occurring, greater returns than the odds I outlined).

The Prediction:  The Raiders win less than four games but more than 0 (aka they finish with 1, 2, or 3 wins).

When this is your picture of a franchise QB you may be in
for some lean years.

The State of Predictions.

I believe in you Kickalicious...
but your doing it wrong.

The European Invasion of the NFL is off to a rocky start.  Foreign players with zero college football experience did not make any 53 man roster, but their is still hope.  The 49ers are retaining the Brittish Olympian discuss thrower (with rugby experience) Lawrence Okoye on injured reserve for the season, the Colts moved Daniel Adongo--a professional rugby player from Nairobi, and yes I know Nairobi is in Africa--to their practice squad, and Norwegian kicker Havard Rugland was cut by the Lions but is now trying out with the Packers.
Status: There is still hope.

Steroids are Still Rampant in the NFL.  I have nothing to add, I just want to say that it is painfully obvious.  If the team owners cared about protecting players from themselves they would make a serious push for HGH testing, and they would not be pushing for an 18 game season.  The protection against concussions is a good thing, even if the league is only doing it to protect their wallets.  I do not have proof of steroid abuse but do we really need it?  There is not one player out of the 1000 or so people with a shot to play in the NFL who is willing to risk his body and reputation for millions of dollars and a chance to live the dream.  Baseball, Cycling, and Olympic sprinting are the only sports where people are willing to risk cheating to win, the NFL players have too much self control to try HGH (yes, that is a dig a the off-season criminal reports).
Status: Obvious, but unchanged.

Greg Oden signed with the Heat.  This one is old.  The news broke right after I published my previous State of Predictions, but I did not deem it worth writing a new post over.  j
Status:  Nailed it, even if I did hope he would go to the spurs.  I hope Oden is able to have a good career.

Are we sure Tebow is left handed?  He is a victim of his own
popularity, if he were relatively unknown he would have an
NFL job today.

Tim Tebow will be the most important free agent signing of 2013...not so much.  My prediction was in jest, but I did expect Tebow to make the 53 man roster.  In my serious prediction at the end I predicted that Tebow was a  non-factor this season, but I expected him to be irrelevant from the sideline, not the couch.
Status:  Dead wrong.

Thank You for reading.

NFL Long Shot Predictions: Week 1.

Denver fans will not like the early returns of Dumervil in
Baltimore.

I do not gamble.  I do not advocate sports gambling.  I absolutely do not advocate sports gambling based off of my predictions.  I call this blog "Nobody Predicts" because I am a nobody with zero special knowledge.  To rely on my insight is probably less effective than pouring tea into two cups, one with each team logo, and betting on the one with more tea leaf particles in it (that is how oracles do it right?).  This exercise is purely for fun.  I am only using the Vegas odds to show how much of an upset I am calling for.

For both of these games I am predicting an underdog win, not just beating the spread.

Baltimore + 8 over Denver:  Baltimore is not getting love from the writers of the world, or from the gamblers largely because they are replacing valuable leaders in Ed Reed, Ray Lewis, and Anquan Bolden.  Behind one of the best coaching staffs in football and a stable organization that drafts exceptionally well I think those losses will be mitigated by their additions to the pass rush (at the expense of Denver) and improving their overall team speed.  Denver will be the class of the AFC, but not until the return of Von Miller (probably the second best individual defender in the league) after week 6.  Until then Baltimore's underrated defense (after 15 years of dominance it is strange for them to be underrated) will pressure Peyton Manning where Flacco will have plenty of time to find his weapons.

Football Fact: If you do not hit Tom Brady then you
do not win.

Buffalo +9.5 over New England:  For many gamblers this line probably cannot go high enough to convince them to bet against New England.  Buffalo should be in panic mode with their #1 and #2 QB's injured (order does not matter when both cannot play) leaving an undrafted rookie facing Belichick, the (over rated) defensive mastermind.  The smart money is right, New England should destroy Buffalo (and over the course of the season they will), but I have a hope that the Jeff Tuel helps shock world in week 1.  Buffalo has real talent on their roster, and in 2012 they had real aspirations to stop the Patriots reign over the AFC East.  It did not work out that way last season, but it was due to of a lack of defensive execution and the inability of their offence quarterbacks to avoid turnovers, not a lack of talent.  If CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson are able to gouge out sizable chunks on the ground I expect Tuel will make effective play action passes the way the Steelers and Falcons used Roethlisberger and Matt Ryan to make the playoffs as rookies.  If Brady has a little trouble connecting with his new targets and Mario Williams is able to bounce back from the disaster of 2012 this could be a real game.  The part of me that likes seeing David beat Goliath wants Buffalo to win this one (just don't bet on it).