NFL Long Shot Predictions: Week 1.

Denver fans will not like the early returns of Dumervil in
Baltimore.

I do not gamble.  I do not advocate sports gambling.  I absolutely do not advocate sports gambling based off of my predictions.  I call this blog "Nobody Predicts" because I am a nobody with zero special knowledge.  To rely on my insight is probably less effective than pouring tea into two cups, one with each team logo, and betting on the one with more tea leaf particles in it (that is how oracles do it right?).  This exercise is purely for fun.  I am only using the Vegas odds to show how much of an upset I am calling for.

For both of these games I am predicting an underdog win, not just beating the spread.

Baltimore + 8 over Denver:  Baltimore is not getting love from the writers of the world, or from the gamblers largely because they are replacing valuable leaders in Ed Reed, Ray Lewis, and Anquan Bolden.  Behind one of the best coaching staffs in football and a stable organization that drafts exceptionally well I think those losses will be mitigated by their additions to the pass rush (at the expense of Denver) and improving their overall team speed.  Denver will be the class of the AFC, but not until the return of Von Miller (probably the second best individual defender in the league) after week 6.  Until then Baltimore's underrated defense (after 15 years of dominance it is strange for them to be underrated) will pressure Peyton Manning where Flacco will have plenty of time to find his weapons.

Football Fact: If you do not hit Tom Brady then you
do not win.

Buffalo +9.5 over New England:  For many gamblers this line probably cannot go high enough to convince them to bet against New England.  Buffalo should be in panic mode with their #1 and #2 QB's injured (order does not matter when both cannot play) leaving an undrafted rookie facing Belichick, the (over rated) defensive mastermind.  The smart money is right, New England should destroy Buffalo (and over the course of the season they will), but I have a hope that the Jeff Tuel helps shock world in week 1.  Buffalo has real talent on their roster, and in 2012 they had real aspirations to stop the Patriots reign over the AFC East.  It did not work out that way last season, but it was due to of a lack of defensive execution and the inability of their offence quarterbacks to avoid turnovers, not a lack of talent.  If CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson are able to gouge out sizable chunks on the ground I expect Tuel will make effective play action passes the way the Steelers and Falcons used Roethlisberger and Matt Ryan to make the playoffs as rookies.  If Brady has a little trouble connecting with his new targets and Mario Williams is able to bounce back from the disaster of 2012 this could be a real game.  The part of me that likes seeing David beat Goliath wants Buffalo to win this one (just don't bet on it).