The Full Back and the next trend to 'revolutionize' offense in the NFL

I am 100% for the 'Niners getting the kind of production
from their fullback that Rathman used to provide.

As new rules from the NFL competition committee have transitioned the NFL into more of a passing league there have been hundreds of articles about the decline of the importance of the fullback in new NFL offenses.  The first articles came when Mike Marts and forward thinking offenses were replacing the fullback with a slot receiver to to spread the field horizontally and vertically.  The next wave was the duel tight end sets which were able to load up power blockers against the run while still able to attack the defense vertically through the air.  Most of the articles gave examples of teams that carried one or no fullback on their roster.  Later articles described how teams were replacing the traditional fullback with a 3rd or 4th tight end, and only using a fullback (or tight end or guard as a full back) situationally.

Yet in spite of these articles I would see fullbacks throwing their bodies at linebackers every Sunday.  MMQB's excellent preview of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers highlighted how Doug Martin was extra productive with a lead blocker (5.3 yards per carry vs 3.3).  This served to remind me how effective a lead blocker can be in making life difficult for linebackers, and how the rumors of the demise of fullbacks are over stated.  

Then I watched a fullback receive a wide open touchdown pass against the Niners preseason defense that had been greatly hampering the Vikings it reminded me of the hundreds of receptions in the 'flats' that I have watched 'Niners fullbacks make over the years.  A staple of the old west coast offense was finding running backs for passes in space (Tom Rathman, a 49'er fullback and current running backs coach scored two touchdowns in one Superbowl, in 1989 he lead all running backs with 73 receptions).  

From this I realized: If fullbacks are useful in power running situations, but many coaches dislike them because they allow the defense to load up in the 'box' and keep an extra linebacker on the field, shouldn't the natural evolution of the fullback mirror the 'revolution' that is sweeping the league with two tight end sets.  The next wave of fullbacks should be like the old 'Niners fullbacks Rathman and Beasly, able to level devastating blocks but also able to run precise routs with reliable hands.  This will stretch the defense the way offenses do with two dynamic tight ends, who are too powerful to defend with a nickle corner but too fast for an average linebacker to cover.   To stretch a defense horizontally before the snap the way a wide receiver or wide set tight end would the fullback would simply need to motion out and line up outside the box.  

Hernandez, 81, showing the positional versatility that lead
to the Patriots overlooking character concerns to draft him. 

This trend was already beginning, except that the player best executing it was a tight end, and soon to be a convicted felon.  The patriots often had Aaron Hernandez line up as a fullback where he could function as a running threat, extra pass/run blocker, screen threat, or mismatched weapon out of the backfield (the patriots usual choice).  

Back when I played Madden Football I loved this technique.  I had two sets of plays, one out of I formation, the other out of single back.  If I audibled from I form to single back my fullback would become a wide form tight end.  The fullback was not a deep threat but he was an excellent weapon in short crossing routes and set excellent picks for my receivers.  I did not realize that I employed this offense until after I had already reached the conclusion that the fullback position would return to prominence as more dynamic receiving threat.  

Something like that, except I was usually the Niners.

The NFL is a copy cat league, an aspiring coach will see how effective Hernandez was as a receiver out of the backfield and try to emulate some of the patriots plays.  Most of these will fail, most teams do not have a QB as good as Tom Brady or a second tight end as dynamic as Hernandez, but there will be a demand for fullbacks that can run routes effectively from the backfield.  Somewhere now is a player who is too short too be a contemporary tight end (shorter than 6'4") but possesses the necessary blocking and receiving acumen to fit this mold.  He is trying to  make his talents available to a coaching staff that sees the opportunists a dynamic fullback can provide.  Supply will meet demand, and smart teams will earn a competitive advantage because fullbacks are currently undervalued (the way tight ends were before the patriots duo exposed their value).  

The Prediction:  I am having a hard time making a quantifiable prediction, the prevalence of tight ends in the backfield fit my argument, but make any receptions metric unreliable for this prediction.  I predict that a Fullback will make the ProBowll in 2013 or 2014 for their role as a receiver rather than for being the lead blocker for the most productive halfback of the season.  

I am wrong if:  I am wrong if the fullback position is largely ignored as a receiving threat over the next three seasons.  I am wrong if fullbacks continue to be limited to 1st and 2nd down and obvious running situations.  

The last NFL playoff prediction and the purpose of this blog.

"If the home team plays better and scores more than the
visiting team they will win, now can I have my enormous
paycheck?"

The title of this blog is "A Nobody Predicts."  I picked this title to play off the double meaning that I am a nobody in the sports world, I have no journalism credentials, no coaching experience, I only played sports at the high school and recreational levels (and a small high school at that), but also that I want to talk about the parts that 'nobody' is talking about.  Yes, everyone is talking about steroids in baseball and cycling but we largely ignore how obvious it is that no one tests for HGH in the NFL.  I am not saying that I will only discuss topic that no one on the hundreds of sports shows and thousands of sports blogs are not covering, that would leave me nothing to write about, but we all see many interesting angles to these popular stories and wonder why particular questions are not asked by conventional media channels.  For example: when Andre Iguodala signed with the Warriors most of the media noted that he will help them defensively (so did I) but I felt I brought an interesting perspective by discussing what Iguodala's instincts bring to the Warriors offensively, he should fit that offense in a way that generates beautifully flowing offensive basketball; and I did not hear or read one commentator discuss that part of the Iguodala signing.  

In my last two posts I kept true to the 'predicts' part of my blog, but I lost the 'nobody' aspect.  Were they still fun to write?  Kinda.  Can people still enjoy them?  Absolutely, I read about 3,437 of these prediction articles every off season, and I enjoy a good 145 of them (yes, those are the absolute exact numbers).  The problem is that those last two articles are just another set of meaningless predictions that do not say anything (I really enjoyed the article on how Brady owns his division, I feel that the media's celebration of greatness ignores the relatively easy path to dominance Brady has faced, even if he helped create that easy path by beating the ever loving snot out of his competition every year).  

That being said, I have one division left to predict, the AFC South, and you would not believe it but I predict a team will win it.  I will try to find something interesting to say for each AFC South team. 

AFC South:  This is probably the weakest division in football (but we all thought something similar about the NFC West in 2012, look how that turned out).  The Jaguars and Titans look to be seriously short on talent, the Colts are still rebuilding even though grit and luck (no pun intended) pulled them into the playoffs way to early last year.  The Texans are loaded, but still have some holes and injury risks.  

Jacksonville:  Will they be good enough to attract fans and keep from moving to LA?  No.  I think they will continue to disappointing on the field and in rating/attendance, which prompts their move to LA, which they should do.  I dislike LA teams, but sports are more fun when there is a villain, and Jacksonville is not making use of their team.

Every year a team like the Titans makes a big leap in the
standings without making a big change to the roster.

Tennessee:  This is a team that can make some noise with some good blocking, luck, and improvement from Jake Locker at quarterback. This team is under the national radar because they do not do much exceptionally well (over the last few years they have only been a decent running team), but the difference between ok and good in the NFL is minuscule, and the Titans are the kind of team that can surprise people (like the Colts did in 2012).  I do not expect them too, but it could happen.
Indianapolis:  I covered Indy and Andrew Luck fairly extensively (for me) already.  The short version is that while Luck improves as a quarterback the Colts will not be as lucky as they were last season and fall short of the playoffs.  This will cause the media to overreact and say that Griffin and Wilson are better, when there is not nearly enough evidence to prove that (yet).

I work an increadably demanding job, and I am one of
the 20 best in the world at it, yet people call me a loser.
How does that make sense? 

Houston:  As the most talented team in the division they should be the lone playoff representative of the
division.  The problem with Houston is that they are as talented as any team, but a team with a caretaker quarterback must be significantly superior (or lucky) to win a championship, not just as talented.  The Seahawks, Broncos, and 'Niners have all the supporting talent that the Texans have coupled with far superior quarterbacks.  The 'Niners did not make it to the superbowl until they upgraded from a caretaker QB too Kaepernick, who is a real difference maker (I do not mean this as an insult to Schaub or Smith, both are respectable men who are far greater at their professions than I am at mine).  

Difficult NFL predictions: Contenders forced to the wildcard.

According to my The NFC West, NFC East, and AFC North all feature two teams with legitimate championship aspirations.  The NFC North and South could also make that claim, but not every good team gets to make the playoffs.  The Chiefs will make the playoffs, but I do expect them to be a contender.

One of these quarterbacks will have a good season.

The NFC West:  The Cardinals will improve, they have some elite players (especially Patterson and Fitzgerald) but their offensive line is still bad, and while Palmer is an improvement at QB he is not fast enough with his feet or reads to thrive with this little protection.  The Rams will be tough every week, but their young talent is still a year away...maybe, I could see them as another western wild card team (but they will not pass the Redskins, Seahawks, or 'Niners so long as their quarterbacks are playing).  

Seattle:  The Seahawks might be the best team in the league, or they may be the 3rd best in their division.  My rankings placed them in a tie for the forth best team overall, but behind SF, which would make them once again a contender on the road.  I think that Seattle's pass rush is good, but not great.  I think the same of their offensive line.  I think that teams will be ready for the read option offense and force Wilson to throw from the pocket.  I think that I might only think all of that because I am a 49ers fan and Seattle is frighteningly good.  

San Francisco:  I have SF ranked as the second best team overall.  I expected them to be the best.  I scored them low at receiver, cb, and safety, but all of those positions could turn out to be stronger than predicted (if the rookie Reid can play with nuance, if Nnamdi Asomugha rediscovers his play back by the bay, or if Crabtree returns near his full form).  I scored those positions extra harshly to compensate for my bias as a 'Niners fan.  I think that Kaepernick will improve in his second year as a starter.  My fear for the Niners is that they are probably the most talented team in the league, but it is hard to recover from losing the Superbowl and every team wants to take them out.  I costly injuries, turnovers, and mental mistakes can cost the Niners a few games, and I could see the 'Niners winning ten or eleven games but losing the division to the 'Hawks and missing the playoffs in a tie breaker.  I hope I am right, but in the NFL nothing is certain, especially when you share a division with another contender.  

The Prediction:  I expect the Niners and Hawks to split the season series, but the Niners to get revenge against the Rams (in a sweep) for their going winless against them in 2012.  When the Hawks and Rams split their games that creates all the separation these two powerhouses will see in the division.  

One of these quarterbacks will not have a good season.

NFC East:  The Cowboys and Eagles are good enough to win some games, but not good enough to beat out the Redskins or Giants for a playoff spot.  The Cowboys are doomed by erratic play, general dysfunction, and poor play from their offensive line and defensive backs.  Tony Romo does everything he can to keep the team afloat, but the fans blame him for his inability to generate defensive stops, open up holes for the running backs or provide his own pass protection.  The Eagles fans are grateful that their team shows considerable improvement under Chip Kelly and are understanding that it takes time to rebuild a defense with serious holes...Just kidding.  The Eagles are greatly improved upon last seasons embarrassment but are still booed during a late season home loss.   

Washington:  The Redskins get a healthy RG3, who is able to play most of the season.  He is effective, but gives out an average of 3 cardiac arrests per week in the Washington area due to his reckless scrambles.  The Redskins play well but feel the loss of the draft picks traded to get Griffin when they do not have the depth needed to adjust as mid season injuries take their tole.  The offence is excellent as directed by the Shanahans with Griffin to pilot it.  They are able to win just enough games to slip past the Bears and Falcons as the last wildcard team in the NFC.  

New York Giants:  The Giants start the season with a few disappointing losses but finish strong.  As the Niners and Seattle are battling away in a difficult NFC East the Giants take control of the East and claim the top NFC playoff seed.  Eli is fantastic and the Giants pass rush returns to Superbowl form.  

AFC North:  The AFC North is used to sending two contenders too the playoffs, they are just not used to

I projected the Bengals to make the wild card, but I would
not be shocked if they morphed into the AFC's best team.

one of them being the Bengals.  The Steelers are still too old defensively and their offensive line is not dependable enough to be a run behind dependably or to give Big Ben the protection he needs.  In spite of this they are still going to contend for a playoff spot, because that is what teams comprised of aging champions do.  The Browns are a tough team with real talent and if they were in an easier division they might be a winning team, but they will have a tough time against their divisional foes.  

Cincinnati:  I did not expect to project the Bengals as contenders, but they are a talented team that is well coached and keeps finding good players.  Teams do not luck their way into the playoffs from inside the AFC North, and back to back playoff trips show that the Bengals are priming to make a real run.  Making the playoffs is no longer enough, they need to win in the post season, and they will have a chance to do it.  

Baltimore:  I expected to project the Ravens out of the playoffs.  The cost of contending year in and out is harsh, and they paid it through the loss of several great players (and leaders).  However the Ravens were intelligent in how they filled the gaps, they did not over pay for anyone (Except maybe for Flacco, but teams cannot really overpay for a franchise quarterback), and they understood that increased production from one position can make up for a loss at a different position.  The Ravens of 2013 are just as talented as the Ravens who won the Superbowl but their success depends on players matching the instincts of Lewis, Boldin, and Reid, not just their physical abilities.  I think they will to the tune of a third strait division championship (but not a Superbowl title).  

Difficult NFL predictions: the coin flip.

"It's my division, give it to me!"

A nice result of creating my arbitrary ranking system was that it allowed me to see more clearly how I felt about each team.  Without the system I would have spent way too much time trying to convince myself into and out of picking every team in the NFC East as a division winner.  With the score sheet I could see rather definitively that not only did I feel that the New York Giants were the best team in that division, but that I projected them as one of the best teams in the league.  This did not help in the NFC South or North where I gave the two top teams the same score.

NFC North:  Aaron Rogers could own the NFC North the way Brady and the Patriots own the AFC east, except that his competition is selfishly competent.   Since Rogers became a starter in 2008 he has missed the playoffs once (his first season as a starter) but the best non packer team won at least ten games (The list: Vikings 10, Vikings with Favre 12, Bears 11, Lions 10, and the Vikings with 10 again).  Rogers was forced to the wildcard his first three playoff starts (including the Superbowl run).  The competitive nature of this division makes predicting this division difficult.  None the less I predict that the Lions improve (but their defense is still a sieve) and the Vikings regress, but they make it difficult for a team to run away with a lead in the division.  This means either the Packers or Bears will win the division and make the playoff and the other will fail to reach the wildcard in a talent rich NFC.

Turnovers are largely random events, but some teams
are able to beat the odds and generate their own every
year.  The bears are one of those teams.

Chicago:  I did not expect to evaluate Chicago as strongly as I did.  Their offensive line (even with Kyle Long) should be trouble and Cutler is quality but risky quarterback.  But their strength at running back, receiver, defensive line and corner back (two 2012 pro bowl selections) pulled them up a tie with the Packers in talent (to my eyes).  

Green Bay:  Green Bay's excellent scores at quarterback (10) wide receiver (4) and defensive line (7 including the excellent pass rush from Clay Mathews) are countered by average scores across the rest of the team and low scores for an offensive line that creates almost no push for running backs and allows far too much punishment to reach the Franchise Quarterback (consistently hit among the most in the league).  

The Coin Flip:  Packers VS Bears, 50pts vs 50pts.  The Bears are supremely talented, especially across the defense.  They are difficult to back because they rely so much on their opportunistic defense and special to supplement scoring for their offense that has traditionally been hamstrung by a dysfunctional offensive line.  The problem is that scoring from the defense and special teams is statistically erratic.  The bears may be one of the leagues top teams in non offensive scoring (A league best 9 defensive touchdowns in 2012, second best at 6 in 2011) but those scores often come in one blowout game and the offense must sputter without help when the ball is not bouncing their way (5 of those 9 scores happened from weeks 3 to 5 helping power the Bears to a 4-1 start, which they squandered when the defensive scoring slowed down).  Cutler's greatest strength is his ability to generate offense while being pounded by defenders, and when the punishment is too much and he misses time things are not pretty for Chicago fans.  Because of the Bears erratic nature I have to pick the more 'dependable' Packers.  The Packers offensive line is flawed, and their defense will get shredded by teams with multidimensional offenses (as will 25 of the NFL's 32 defenses) but Aaron Rogers will keep the team competitive so long as he is able to play.  Because of that I am taking the boring pick and selecting the Packers.  

NFC South:  The Saints and Falcons have been battling for dominance of this division since the Falcons drafted Matt Ryan.  The Panthers and Buccaneers have made moves to try and crash the playoffs, but they will probably fall short.  The Panthers are too limited at defensive line, corner back, safety, and offensive line (though have an excellent QB and several excellent Linebackers).  The Buccaneers have all the talent necessary after winning the off-season with the Desean Goldson signing and the Revis trade, but after watching returns on investment from the big splash moves of Buffalo in 2012 and Philidelphia's "Dream team" in 2011 I want to see the Bucks before I place any faith in their revamped defense.  They will be good enough to cost the Saints and Falcons a win or two, which will help one of them fall short in what looks like a very competitive wild card race.

Receivers who make plays like this do not make the QB, but
they do make his job easier.

Atlanta:  The Falcons have the most talented receiving crew in the NFL with a pair of superstars supported by the exemplary route running of Tony Gonzalez.  They better get open quickly because I do not see Matt Ryan having much time behind a shaky offensive line.  Defensively the falcons were decent at all levels, but lacking in play makers.  They are hoping a defensive heavy draft will make them more dynamic defensively the way Julio Jones made them more dynamic offensively.
New Orleans:  The Saints looked mistake prone team with lopsided talent at times in 2012, but they also looked like a dangerous team on the hunt for a wildcard spot once they found a way to win, then they started to lose again.  Which team is the real saints?  I hate questions like that, both were the real Saints, and that is who they will be again.  They will be more consistent on both sides of the ball with an invigorated Sean Payton back on the sideline, but they are still a lopsided team with holes in their secondary that needs to blitz to create pressure (creating more openings for good quarterbacks/coaches to exploit).  The Saints are transitioning to a 3-4 base defense, I doubt they will have the talent in house for the transition (anecdotally these things take a couple of years, but someone could write an advanced stats article on the effects of switching defenses) but the new base defense should allow the Saints to better disguise their blitzes and coverage, which in a shootout--and there will be shootouts--could create needed turnovers.  With an offense like the Saints have they do not need an elite defense, just one that gets enough stops for the offense to win the game.

In 2012 Brees passed for 5000 yards and broke the record for
consecutive games with a touchdown pass.  With Payton back
he will be even better (likely by handing the ball off more).

The Coin Flip:  Saints Vs Falcons, 49pts vs 49pts.  I look at the Falcons and I wonder "are they really only a 49?  Should I give them a few more points on the offensive and defensive lines?  The Bears and Packers have offensive lines that are just as questionable and they are ranked higher."  The difference is I do not trust the Falcons Pass rush.  The Bears and Packers can get to the opposing quarterback.  I did rank the Falcons better than the Saints in terms of pure talent, though the Saints are better on the offensive line--especially in the interior.  I scored the Saints high in terms of X-Factor because I believe that the return of Sean Payton means something.  This is not a rational metric based argument (none of my predictions are really, but I like to lie to myself that they are), it is a flawed emotional argument but I expect the Saints to be extra sharp under Payton who will be an improvement in terms of strategy and stability where the saints seemed overwhelmed last season.  

NFL playoff predictions, the 'obvious' choices

These men had to play outside of their divisions to find a
worthy rival.  

The NFL playoffs are notoriously difficult to predict because every year 2 too 6 playoff teams fail to return, and every year at least one losing team seems to make a leap into the playoffs.

In spite of that annual upheaval some things are predictable.  Great quarterbacks tend to find a way to get their team into the playoffs.  Brady, Manning, Rogers, and Brees tend to be in the dance even while their team talent is reloading.  Lopsided divisions also allow for some (often false) security while predicting.  The Houston Texans were a safe bet to make the 2013 playoffs because their division looked so soft going into 2012.

A great quarterback in an 'easy' division is where predicting becomes predictable.  Since Tom Brady took over as the starting quarterback for The New England Patriots in 2001 they have made the playoffs every year except two (both were lost by tiebreakers, and for one Brady was injured).  Tom Brady's career winning percentage is 77.7%, that means that if he plays a full 16 game season you can expect the Patriots to win around 12 games.  It is hard to miss the playoffs while wining so prodigiously.  What makes the AFC east such a route is the relative mediocrity of the Patriots competition over that time.  In the 12 year Brady era the Patriots' division rivals have only fielded 7 teams that were able to win 10 games (The minimum number of wins I expect a team should win to be in the playoff hunt), so in 5 of 12 Brady years there was no real alternative to the Patriots winning that division.  The Tom Brady era has never faced a division rival that won 12 or more games.  Tom Brady's average season has been enough to win the division every season he has played.

That is why predicting a great quarterback in a bad division is easy.  I could have easily written that same article about Peyton Manning except I would have to account for some elite squads from Tennessee.

These two never made the division championship easy
for each other, but this rivalry should always be about
awesome team defense.

Easy divisions are not only defined by the teams at the top, but also those at the bottom.  A division can produce two title contenders and still be an easy division so long as the other two teams provide fodder for the winning teams.  Before Andy Dalton was drafted by the Bengals the Steelers and Ravens routinely faced each other in the playoffs.  This was because both were great teams, but also because with a few exceptions both teams were able to feast on the hapless Browns and Bengals for 4 wins to pad their win total for a wild card race.  When Tennessee fielded elite teams to compete against Manning's Colts it was much easier for one to win the wild card race when the Texans and Jaguars were terrible for most of a decade.

When is this model wrong?
When the elite quarterback is injured this model falls apart:  When Brady and Manning missed a season their teams were out of the playoffs.  That can happen at any time.
An 'easy' division can be fools gold:  In 2011 I thought that Harbaugh and the Niners were going to own the NFC West.  In 2012 we saw one division rival draft a franchise quarterback and another trade a (the rights to) a franchise quarterback for a kings ransom in draft picks.  Now our division appears to be a unpredictable slug fest similar to the Bengals-Steelers-Ravens battles in the AFC North.
It is about more than the quarterback:  Even elite quarterbacks need support; the opportunity was there for Drew Brees or Eli Manning to force their team into the 2013 wildcard but the competition at the top of their divisions and the NFC was too much for them to overcome while their teams were not able to field their best talent (or coach) week to week.

A great quarterback can help a team to a championship but
even these two cannot guarantee making it into the playoffs.

Who does this prediction fit? Technically this is just an extension of yesterdays prediction.  The Broncos and Patriots will have a relatively easy path too the playoffs in spite of important personnel losses, because their elite quarterbacks know how to clean up in easy divisions.  (The K.C. Chiefs will also make the playoffs out of the AFC West, as both playoff teams will be buoyed by 4 games against the Chargers and Raiders whom I project to be terrible).

Who does this prediction not fit?  Everyone else.  The Niners, Seahawks, Saints, Packers, Ravens, Bengals, Redskins, or Giants, all all projected playoff teams that field elite (or soon to be elite) quarterbacks but they play in divisions that are too difficult (a.k.a. unpredictable) for this model.

This does not apply to the Texans or Chiefs because they have good but not elite quarterbacks, but both play in relatively easy divisions.

Official NFL playoff predictions and my arbitrary ranking system.

What, I get injured and you no longer predict my team will
make the playoffs?  You Mr. Sports blogger are going to be
arrested by the prediction police because your predictions
now contradict each other, this is not Vegas, you cannot
bet both sides here.  

I had some fun on Google drive and created a spreadsheet where I ranked every team's talent by my own imaginary metric.  Make sure you look over at the second page titled "sorted" to see the teams ranked best too worst.

A few notes on the rankings: 

• Every positional group is scored to a value between 1-5 or 1-10.  1-10 scores are reserved for quarterbacks, the offensive line, or defensive line.  
• I factored pass blitzing linebackers such as Aldon Smith as part of the defensive line unit, because much of the value of this unit (why they are worth up to 10 points) is from their impact against the opposing passing game.  
• The X-Factor ranking is a small bump for a strong home field advantage (Seattle, Denver, etc), or the presence of a particularly good team organizer/leader/motivating factor (the return of Sean Payton, or simply having Manning/Brady/Russell Wilson on your team).  
• The X-Factor can also be a negative number, like I gave to the Niners and Ravens to account for the extra difficult path back to the Super Bowl, or to the Jets for being the Jets (-1 for a bad QB controversy and -1 for Rex Ryan not understanding how to work with a quarterback).  Jerry Jones' meddling earned a negative mark for the cowboys.  The Steelers earned a -1 for their injury history.  
• Most of the points are completely made up from my gut assessment, but I did consult football outsiders innovative stats and rotoworld for help, but my gut made the final decisions.  
• Where there was a tie I just picked the team that I thought would pull it out.  I felt confident in picking the Packers over the Bears, but considerably less confident in picking the Saints over the Falcons.  
• I absolutely went back and fudged the numbers (a little) to make them match what I thought they would be.  Most of the playoff teams were unmolested, but I originally I ranked Tampa Bay as the best in their division and the equal of contenders like Seattle and Houston.  I think Tampa will be close in the playoff hunt, but I do not think they will run away with their division.  I also scored down the Cardinals and Bears.  The cardinals have real talent, but they are the worst team in their (incredibly tough) division, and the bears are good, but like Tampa they are not title contenders, not until their line shows real improvement.  

The not scientific playoff prediction: 

AFC:  1-Broncos, 2-Patriots, 3-Texans, 4-Ravens, with the 5-Bengals (who I did not expect to include) and the 6-Chiefs (who I did expect) slipping into the wildcard.  

NFC: 1-New York Football Giants, 2-49ers (who were dropped to below the giants due to the difficulty of the western division), 3-Packers, 4-Saints, and the superior 5-Seahawks and 6-Redskins (who I also thought would score lower) will be forced to travel to play against inferior teams.  

This leaves the Colts, Falcons, and Vikings falling out of of the playoffs.  

I will write something on every one of these teams (unless I already have; my article on Alex Smith covered the Chiefs and my article on the regression of the Colts while they/Luck actually improve as a team has them thoroughly covered).  

The European invasion of the NFL has officially begun.

Who wants to block this guy?

The Dream Team is often credited with popularizing basketball around the world.  The influx of foreign talent onto NBA courts started slowly and grew until the NBA could boast of #1 overall draft selections from Africa, Canada, the Caribbean Islands, Australia, China and Europe.  They have had three foreign born overall MVP's (those three have also earned Finals MVP's).   

The NBA has always had a role for the random foreign athletes who learned of the game and were able to excel at it, but after the Dream team came a generation of foreign players with aspirations of playing in the NBA, and their journey was different.  This was not a random occurrence of a tall athlete being found by a college coach, these were children inspired by a graceful sport who dedicated themselves to playing it at the highest level.  This is a transition the NFL will soon find.  

The first two roles that translated to the NBA were that of big men and shooters.   Foreign leagues required a long slow maturation process before they could adequately prepare foreign players in the ball handling, speed, creativity, and versatility required for many positions in the NBA but America did not have a monopoly on unusually tall men, and the NBA will forever provide opportunities for athletic tall men.  The NBA also has constant demand for expert perimeter shooters. A generation of foreign players with NBA aspirations did not have quality competition to practice against like domestic players faced, but they could spend hours practicing their shooting, and they did.  From this the first wave of foreign players were either tall, or expert shooters, often both.  

This is what Americans imagine when we think of foreign
basketball players.

As the foreign leagues developed the exporting talent also developed.  Soon many  foreign players no longer fit the mold of "tall fundamental shooter" (though we still stereotype them as such) but also included defensive experts, athletic transition players, and creative ball handlers.  

The United States still produces most of the best basketball players in the world (and as a wealthy sports obsessed nation with the worlds 3rd largest population and a robust system for developing basketball talent we should continue to be) but foreign countries are closing the gap, and soon the world combined will have superior talent to America alone, and soon after that basketball obsessed countries with comparably large or even huge populations (like China and Brazil) will match America as equals (even if it takes another hundred years).  

The same process is beginning for american football and the NFL.  

American Football is more expensive and dangerous than basketball.  A kid can fall in love with basketball and construct a hoop against a wall, bundle up a shirt or convert a soccer ball and they are soon playing.  Tackle football is not so accessible.  Even before the Dream Team basketball leagues were growing across the world.  Organized American Football has almost no foreign leagues.  That slows the process, but it does not stop it, not in the age of the internet.  Where the NBA will always find space for tall men and skilled shooters the NFL will find opportunists for unusually large/powerful men and expert kickers.  There are two foreign born trailblazers trying to make it in the NFL, whether they succeed or fail in their dream is largely irrelevant to the question of if there will be a wave foreign players joining the NFL as there once was in NBA, MLB and (I assume) the NHL.  

Am I doing it right?  Seriously, go watch this guys video,
he has NFL talent, but if he does not make a roster a team
should keep him for the half time show.

Havard Rugland is competing for a position as a place kicker for the Detroit Lions.  Once before kicking in the NFL was revolutionized by soccer players converting to American Football.  This will happen again, Billions of soccer players with powerful legs are beginning to look NFL kickers (and the hundreds of thousands of dollars they are paid) and think "I can do that."    Most cannot, but out of the billions who will try a solid handful of foreign players with booming legs will find their way onto NFL practice fields for for training camp.  

Lawrence Okoye is a British Olympian trying out for a spot on the San Francisco 49ers.  If he was born in America football coaches would have started begging him to play from the time he was 12.  He is built to be a football player.  He could probably have a career in some other professional sport (like Rugby) but he wanted to try his hand in the NFL.  His path to a roster spot will be harder than that for a random kicker.  A Kicker can buy a football and practice on any field.  A defensive or offensive player needs a team and coach to be properly trained in the fundamentals of football.  This is something someone simply cannot develop on their own.  Football evolved from Rugby, and Okoye is trying to make that evolution in himself.  America does not have a monopoly on large/strong/athletic men, and many will look at the NFL and try to make that leap.  They may be Iranian weight lifters, or Japanese Sumo Wrestlers, or South African rugby players but more world class athletes will see opportunity in the NFL, and some of them will find success there. 

The Prediction:  In ten years there will have been at least five starting foreign kickers and one five foreign players to have been regular starters on either offense or defense.  Foreign players are defined by having played no high school football.  

I am wrong if:  This is fairly strait forward, there is not a significant number of foreign players in 10 years I am wrong in my prediction.  

Andrew Luck will improve, and very few people will notice.

One way Andrew Luck is special is his ability to throw
through (or after) a hit.  Big Ben was better; before injuries.

In all team sports there is rarely as strong a correlation between the play of one individual and the success of
a team as that between a quarterback and his team.  The goalie in hokey and pitcher in baseball may be the only other positions with comparable impact on a game.  When Peyton Manning lost to the Ravens in a game where he played well enough to win he was blamed, told that he was not clutch, and many argued that Tim Tebo at least won a playoff game.  They are ignoring the fact that if not for a couple of plays that were unlucky for the Broncos they would have won, and that by his regular season dominance Peyton 'won' a bye week for them, effectively the same as a playoff win.  Commentators look at Peytons overall playoff record of 9-11 and fail to account for the inferior teams he carried into the playoffs (there was a reason the colts only won two games when he was injured) and that he often lost to superior teams (or to a team that was famously cheating).  Wins are an important measurement for a quarterbacks ability but in a vacuum it leads to faulty conclusions.  By that measure a quarterbacks best years will always be those with the most superior supporting cast and ignore the even more impressive years when he carries a deeply flawed team.  As I discussed with Alex Smith and Mark Sanchez an average quarterback can have success on a stacked team, but only a great quarterback can have success on a flawed team, even if that leads to disappointing playoff failures.

Remember when he was the exciting young gun?

Outside the hashes does a great job explaining this phenomenon and how Manning was a superior quarterback caring a mediocre team than Brady was while winning championships with a fantastic supporting cast.

Andrew Luck and the Colts will soon face those similar false conclusions, except the false comparisons will be between a 2012 that was a revelation and a 2013 that will be a grind.

I am not saying that Luck of 2013 will have an inferior supporting cast to 2012.  With another good draft and the development of their young players they should be even more talented.  Many talking heads will use this to support the 'sophomore slump' narrative.

The defense should be better in 2013 after drafting 3 defenders and signing several free agents. Improving the defense was a clearly a priority for the Colts, but like all NFL off season moves we will have to wait until the games matter to see if they work.  Compared to the 7th worst defense in 2012 (by yards, they were the 12th worst by points allowed) it would be difficult for the Colts to regress defensively.

Luck will improve statistically:  He will throw less than 18 interceptions in a system imported from Stanford (where Luck played) with many shorter and safer receiver/tight end routs.  Luck will complete a higher percentage of his throws as his receivers and protection improve (they also drafted two offensive linemen).

It seems counter-intuitive for the quarterback (and thus the offence) and the defense to improve but to expect a regression.  The Colts were fortunate to win 11 games last season and their good fortune will likely fade.  They were outscored by over 30 points in the regular season, the only 11 win team to ever be outscored that badly.  They were able to do this largely by crushing a paper soft schedule by going 7-2 against some of the 10 worst teams of 2012 (Yes, 9 of their 16 games against bottom 10 teams, but that includes splitting games with the 2 win Jaguars and two victories against the 6 win Titans).  They only went 4-3 against all other competition (which resembles a much more plausible 9-7 projected record).  It is nearly impossible to predict the strength of schedule (the 2012 Broncos were projected to face one of the leagues most difficult schedules based on 2011 rankings, but as several 'tough' opponents faltered they faced a relatively easy path to the playoffs), but it is unlikely that the Colts will have such an easy path in 2013.

Additionally, thanks largely to Lucks composure, the colts went 9-1 in games decided by 7 points or less, an unheard of number.  Most teams win around 50% of those games over time, with elite quarterbacks like Brady, Rodgers, or Peyton Manning winning slightly more.  Luck may become one of those quarterbacks, but it is unlikely that he can sustain that pace (or even have 10 such games next year to swing in his favor).

The evil Bill Barnwell does a fantastic job of describing how the Colts were lucky last season.  I stole much of my previous two paragraphs from his work.  Sorry Bill, please do not sue me.

The Prediction:  The Colts will finish somewhere near 8-8 and miss the playoffs, with a better defensive ranking, turnover margin, and completion percentage.  The media will say that Luck has lost the poise he had in close games his rookie year, and that he was the wrong choice as the number 1 overall pick over Wilson and Griffin.
I am wrong if:  I can fail in two directions.  If the Colts make the playoffs again I am wrong, but if Luck fails to improve in completion percentage and in limiting interceptions I am also wrong.  If the Colts defense fails to improve I will not count it against this prediction, this is more about the undo blame put on quarterbacks.

It is better to be Lucky than good (I held off on that joke for
the entire column).  Next year Luck will be good, but he will
need more luck to make the playoffs again.

Steroids are Rampant in the NFL

This is 100% natural

No NFL players are tested for HGH.  I repeat, no NFL players are tested for Human Growth Hormone, the most famous and available steroid that almost anyone has ever heard of...and the NFL is not testing for it.

Quick, name another steroid, other than HGH.  

Neither can I.  

Barry Bonds used THG (tetrahydrogestrinone), but I needed to look it up.  

The following stories are from my imagination, but I absolutely believe that they are true:

The Rookie: A young man has invested his whole life in football.  He was a star at a large high school that has sent several people to the NFL.  He was told from a young age that the only way out of his bad neighborhood or downtrodden town was on the football field, and that he was the one everyone was counting on.  That young man gets a football scholarship and he takes easy classes to stay eligible for football.  By his senior year he is not close to graduating and never invested in the difficult classes that would prepare him for a life after football.  Football was the plan, the only plan, and he was fully invested in it.  The young man was good at the college level, but not a star.  He played a lot, but was never irreplaceable.  He declared for the draft, and hired an agent.  He went to the combine, and his numbers were decent, but slow for his position.  He was told that he would likely only be drafted if he had a much better time at his schools pro day.  At the combine the young man heard a roomer about someone who could get him something that would help him get the time he needed.  Football was the way out, his family's dreams depended on him, if he could not get a better 40 time, just enough to be drafted, he would disappoint everyone.  He told himself he did not need to keep using, just for training, just to get drafted.  Numbers on a clock were not football, once he was on the team he could stop using and prove himself while clean, like he always had.  He uses, he is drafted in a late round, and he stops.  He shows up to OTA's and he is called "out of shape" and "slow" his agent informs him that he is "on the chopping block" if he does not impress the coaches soon.  He is too close to his dream to lose it now, so he calls his connection and tells the beat reporter that "he will be ready for training camp."  

Pictured David Boston: the exception that proves
the rule.  Boston used steroids to bulk up so much
that he was no longer productive as a receiver.

The Veteran:  The Veteran has had several good years in the league.  The coaches love his knowledge, instincts, and leadership.  He is often described as a fan favorite.  But this veteran has lost a step.  It is getting harder to stay healthy.  His marriage is strained and he is worried about divorce.  He managed his money well, but he still owes some for his house, and for the 3rd car.  With one big contract he can pay off the house and car and save enough for his kids to go to college.  He just needs one good year to show he can still do it on the field.  One good year to get enough guaranteed money in his next contract.  He has stayed clean all these years, but this late round rookie is making him look bad at training camp.  This kid is faster than he is, and he knows the coaches are impressed.  The veteran knows he that he is better than the kid, and he hears that the kid is juicing.  The vet always wanted to stay clean, he told himself he would leave the game with dignity when it was time, but he cannot find dignity in losing his spot to a cheater.  He has been around long enough to know who he needs to call.  The veteran has a good year, a career year, local writers describe how he has gotten better with age.  He tells them he has finally gotten his nutrition right, that he has learned to respect his sleep cycle, that his new form of training is special, and that the blood platelet treatment that he got in Europe has fixed his old nagging injury.  The coaches see his production and expand his role and he gets that last contract with guaranteed money.  The house is paid off and he will not have to worry about his kids affording college.  

The Star:  This player was highly drafted.  God gave him speed, strength, and size prototypical for his position.  He has worked hard to maximize those gifts.  He has never really though about juicing, he never felt a need to.  The star is near the end of his first big contract, and his salary is no longer guaranteed.  His agent tells him that the team is low balling him in their contract negotiations.  The team's stance is that the old veteran is giving them matching production at a fraction of the star's salary and that they have a second year player with promise who needs more minutes.  The team tells him they want to keep him, they drafted him, they developed him, the fans love him, but this is a business and as the price of his contract escalates so must his production or they will be forced to trade/cut him.  The star is one of the best in the league, he deserves that recognition, he deserves that money.  He hears roomers that the former rookie and the veteran are juicing, he hears that some of the other stars at his position are also juicing.  He works in a produce or go home career, he does not feel that he should let these inferior players have a competitive advantage over him.  A friend of his knows someone, and he makes a call.  

I understand why people in those positions make the choices they do.  I do not believe that all positions are rewarded equally by steroid use (I think that a quarterback makes better use of his time practicing timing and watching film, but a defensive tackle needs power, technique, size, and more power), but I cannot look at the spikes in production from baseball and think "I can't really see how being stronger and faster would help in the NFL."  Baseball showed us that when there is not testing the players will cheat.  I do not think that NFL players are any more or less moral than baseball players (or Wall Street bankers who will cheat through fraud and insider trading so long as the government does not prosecute them for it).  The NFL does not test for HGH while the rewards for cheating are fantastic.  I understand why they cheat.  It only partially their fault.  We talk about how advancements in medical science allow for faster recovery times.  They do, but some of those advancements are performance enhancers. We talk about how players and bigger, stronger, and faster in this era but do we really believe that the humane genome has changed that much over 20 years.  We allow ourselves to be fooled by articles about advancements in the science of exercise and diet and never question that some of those advancements may be chemical/hormonal.

Because when this guy played the game was pure?  I know
Mr. Romo, you never cheated, all of your hundreds of
supplements were allowed by the league and to prove it you
never tested dirty for anything they were testing for.

The prediction:   When the players association and the league reach an agreement on testing for HGH there will be a long and slow implementation period to allow the players to ween themselves off of it.  After it is through players will be noticeably smaller and slower.  The speed and size of players will regress to what they looked like in the 80's/90's, still elite athletes, but they will not look like extras from Conan the Barbarian (remember how baseball changed, performance enhancers are still a factor, it is no longer obvious).
I am wrong if:  If the association allows for immediate testing and there is not a significant number of players caught using HGH and if the game continues at the same speed and size that it currently does then my accusations are unfounded (though I think still logical).