The Full Back and the next trend to 'revolutionize' offense in the NFL

I am 100% for the 'Niners getting the kind of production
from their fullback that Rathman used to provide.

As new rules from the NFL competition committee have transitioned the NFL into more of a passing league there have been hundreds of articles about the decline of the importance of the fullback in new NFL offenses.  The first articles came when Mike Marts and forward thinking offenses were replacing the fullback with a slot receiver to to spread the field horizontally and vertically.  The next wave was the duel tight end sets which were able to load up power blockers against the run while still able to attack the defense vertically through the air.  Most of the articles gave examples of teams that carried one or no fullback on their roster.  Later articles described how teams were replacing the traditional fullback with a 3rd or 4th tight end, and only using a fullback (or tight end or guard as a full back) situationally.

Yet in spite of these articles I would see fullbacks throwing their bodies at linebackers every Sunday.  MMQB's excellent preview of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers highlighted how Doug Martin was extra productive with a lead blocker (5.3 yards per carry vs 3.3).  This served to remind me how effective a lead blocker can be in making life difficult for linebackers, and how the rumors of the demise of fullbacks are over stated.  

Then I watched a fullback receive a wide open touchdown pass against the Niners preseason defense that had been greatly hampering the Vikings it reminded me of the hundreds of receptions in the 'flats' that I have watched 'Niners fullbacks make over the years.  A staple of the old west coast offense was finding running backs for passes in space (Tom Rathman, a 49'er fullback and current running backs coach scored two touchdowns in one Superbowl, in 1989 he lead all running backs with 73 receptions).  

From this I realized: If fullbacks are useful in power running situations, but many coaches dislike them because they allow the defense to load up in the 'box' and keep an extra linebacker on the field, shouldn't the natural evolution of the fullback mirror the 'revolution' that is sweeping the league with two tight end sets.  The next wave of fullbacks should be like the old 'Niners fullbacks Rathman and Beasly, able to level devastating blocks but also able to run precise routs with reliable hands.  This will stretch the defense the way offenses do with two dynamic tight ends, who are too powerful to defend with a nickle corner but too fast for an average linebacker to cover.   To stretch a defense horizontally before the snap the way a wide receiver or wide set tight end would the fullback would simply need to motion out and line up outside the box.  

Hernandez, 81, showing the positional versatility that lead
to the Patriots overlooking character concerns to draft him. 

This trend was already beginning, except that the player best executing it was a tight end, and soon to be a convicted felon.  The patriots often had Aaron Hernandez line up as a fullback where he could function as a running threat, extra pass/run blocker, screen threat, or mismatched weapon out of the backfield (the patriots usual choice).  

Back when I played Madden Football I loved this technique.  I had two sets of plays, one out of I formation, the other out of single back.  If I audibled from I form to single back my fullback would become a wide form tight end.  The fullback was not a deep threat but he was an excellent weapon in short crossing routes and set excellent picks for my receivers.  I did not realize that I employed this offense until after I had already reached the conclusion that the fullback position would return to prominence as more dynamic receiving threat.  

Something like that, except I was usually the Niners.

The NFL is a copy cat league, an aspiring coach will see how effective Hernandez was as a receiver out of the backfield and try to emulate some of the patriots plays.  Most of these will fail, most teams do not have a QB as good as Tom Brady or a second tight end as dynamic as Hernandez, but there will be a demand for fullbacks that can run routes effectively from the backfield.  Somewhere now is a player who is too short too be a contemporary tight end (shorter than 6'4") but possesses the necessary blocking and receiving acumen to fit this mold.  He is trying to  make his talents available to a coaching staff that sees the opportunists a dynamic fullback can provide.  Supply will meet demand, and smart teams will earn a competitive advantage because fullbacks are currently undervalued (the way tight ends were before the patriots duo exposed their value).  

The Prediction:  I am having a hard time making a quantifiable prediction, the prevalence of tight ends in the backfield fit my argument, but make any receptions metric unreliable for this prediction.  I predict that a Fullback will make the ProBowll in 2013 or 2014 for their role as a receiver rather than for being the lead blocker for the most productive halfback of the season.  

I am wrong if:  I am wrong if the fullback position is largely ignored as a receiving threat over the next three seasons.  I am wrong if fullbacks continue to be limited to 1st and 2nd down and obvious running situations.