The state of predictions.

It is near the end of July and I figure that once a month I can do a quick piece on where I was wrong and where I was right in my predictions so far.  Some of these predictions will take years to confirm or deny, but I will give updates where I can to how they are progressing.  I am going to skip the predictions where nothing of interest has happened.

1) Dwight will stay in L.A.:  This was not a serious prediction, but it was still a prediction.  WRONG

2) Tim Tebow will lead the pats to the playoffs:  Again, not serious, it is not proven wrong yet, but it will be.  I wonder if my prediction counts as correct if Tebow leads to them to the playoffs while playing tight end?  I do not think so, my scenario was pretty specific and ridiculous.  The real prediction that Brady will start every game and win the division still looks strong.

5) The Eagles will surprise everyone to win the NFC East:  This prediction does not look as strong after the injury to Jeremy Maclin.  I had envisioned Maclin, Jackson, McCoy and Vick using their unique talents and the mismatches created by Chip Kellys system to become an explosive offense.  With only one dangerous receiver this team becomes much easier to game plan against.  WEAKENED BUT STILL ALIVE

Nothing interesting happened regarding my other predictions, yet.

Alex Smith will thrive in K.C.

No one expects Alex to do what the great Joe Montana did.

Another 49er quarterback moves to K.C. following Steve DeBerg, Joe Montana, Steve Bono, and Elvis Gerbac.  In total the 'Niners have received a first, forth, and second round picks over the years for quarterbacks.   

Joe Montana lead the Chiefs in two come from behind playoff victories before losing to the Buffalo Bills in the AFC championship game.  Those were the last two playoff games Kansas City has won.  Can Alex break that streak?  Yes, but it depends on which Alex will show up.  

Alex Smith has had 3 phases of his career:

1: Young and talented but derailed by injuries and institutional inconsistency:  Alex had some early success on a bad team before a shoulder injury derailed him.  He was forced to change offensive coordinators every year, and often teammates.  He never developed the consistency necessary to be good.  In these years I wished San Fransisco drafted Aaron Rogers, much of my family went to Berkeley and I always want to root for Cal alumni.

2: A Limited veteran with a limited system:  These were also known as the Singeltary years.  In these years the 'Niners were clearly talented.  Davis and Gore were clearly excellent weapons, and Crabtree clearly had potential.  The defense should have been awesome.  But the team was clearly over matched from a strategic stand point.  My friends and I would joke that the 'Niners had two plays; Power I run to Gore and the Single Back School Yard pass where Alex draws the routs on his hand in the huddle.  In these years the SF fandom turned against Alex, and after every loss angry drunk men called into local radio stations and called an upstanding member of the community a loser.  In these years I wanted Alex to have a chance to prove these idiots wrong.  I wanted him to have a few good years.  I had respect for Alex as a person in how well he handled the blame coming from failures that were bigger than him. 

Harbaugh brought out the best QB in Alex.

3: Competency in an excellent system:  Harbaugh came to town and everything changed for the 49ers.  Alex was coached to protect the ball and his accuracy and passer rating rose.  Finally we ran some competent play action passes to capitalize on the talent of Davis and Gore.  Alex was a hero in a playoff game.  Everything seemed good for Alex on the surface, but smart fans could see the flaws in his game.  He had accurate completion percentages and avoided turnovers, but much of that was at the expense of having a dynamic offense.  Alex consistently checked down to short safe passes.  The most aggravating play that Alex perfected was the overly safe completion.  An excellent pass allows a receiver to catch and move, but Alex would throw the ball to the safest place--high, low, or behind the receiver--so that the defender could not possibly make a play on the ball, but receiver could not make a play with the ball.  It is not a coincidence that Crabtree emerged as an excellent after the catch player once Kaepernick began throwing him passes.  In this time I wanted the 'Niners to win, but I feared that they would be limited by Alex's favoring safe passes.  

Smith and Charles will make each others jobs easier.

Which Alex Smith will arrive in K.C?  Alex has shown competency when paired with a coach who understands quarterbacks (Reid is as good a QB coach as anyone not named Harbaugh), has an effective run game (Jamaal Charles has a career rushing average of 5.8, which is historically good), and quality blocking (the Chiefs used the first pick in the draft on left tackle Eric Fisher).  Dwayne Bowe is a good weapon at receiver but Alex's success will be about the other pieces.  At the very least Alex will look like the player he was in 2011, a quality quarterback who will not create wins for you, but will not lose games either.  That should be enough for a talented K.C. team to be in the wild card hunt.  If Smith continues to improve on his 2012 play (and connects on some more aggressive passes) expect the Chiefs to win some playoff games soon.  

The Prediction:  Alex Smith will be the starting quarterback who leads the K.C. Chiefs to the playoffs and a playoff win in his time there.  

I am wrong if:  If Alex never wins a playoff game in his K.C. career I will be wrong, and sad, because I like Alex, he seems like a good person.  

Aldon Smith is more than Justin Smiths glamorous shadow.

Giving Justin credit for Aldon's success devalues how great
they are together.

For the San Fransisco 49er defense the narrative at the end of the year was clear "Since Justin Smith was injured against the Patriots Aldon Smith has recorded 0 sacks.  Clearly Aldon cannot produce without Justin."  It is tempting to fall into that narrative, but that is a classic example of confusing correlation and causation.  Is Justin Smith a great player? Absolutely.  Is it harder on Aldon when without Jusitn?  Again Absolutely.  Does that mean that Aldon Smith is over rated because he is useless without Justin?  Not at all.  It is time to break down some of the myths of the end of the season.

The sample size in the NFL is tiny:  In weeks 3-6 Aldon only recorded sacks in one of those games, two against the jets.  In the other 3 games he was shut out.  Does this mean he was ineffective due to some injury or scheme?  Probably not, the game is largely random.  Some plays the quarterback rolls towards Aldon, others towards Justin or towards Brooks, or he is able to throw the ball away.  Over the next 7 games Aldon was able to pull down an amazing 15.  There is no magical explination for that jump in productivity. Aldon is a great player on a great defense and over that span the plays just happened to break his way.  The real difference between the first cold run and that at the end of the season is that the second came with the media focused on Aldon and his pursuit of the sack record (and greater attention on the 'Niners as contenders at the end of the season).  Great players get great numbers, but they often come in random bursts.  We praise the great production and criticize the below average play, while ignoring that the fluctuation is normal.

Aldon was not only limited by Justin's injury, he was also playing with a torn labrum:  The difference between the defense recording a sack or a hurry is one step.  I remember several plays through the end of the season and playoffs where Aldon Smith was one step from pulling down the QB.  Maybe without that injury he could shed his blocker a shade faster and gain that extra step.  

Next season I hope he gets him.

The quality of competition matters:  The cold streak of games where Aldon recorded zero sacks started against the Patriots and continued against Seahawks and Cardinals to end the regular season.  The Patriots and Seahawks were the 3rd and 4th best teams at avoiding sacks so it should not be a surprise that an individual player did not record a sack in an individual game.  Additionally, Aldon had several chances to get Russell Wilson but was too aggressive in his pursuit, allowing Wilson to roll out of contain.  With better preparation for Wilson's speed Aldon may take a better angle and pin him down.  There is no excuse for not recording a sack against the Cardinals, the worst team in the league at protecting the passer.  In the playoffs the 'Niners faced the Packers, Falcons, and Ravens.  The ravens were among the leagues best in avoiding sacks, and even better in the playoffs.  Even though Green Bay and Atlanta did not perform well in their season long sack percentage it is still hard to pressure elite quarterbacks like Rogers and Ryan.  

Aldon was still a very productive player during that run:  In that "cold streak" Aldon recorded his first ever interception, a crucial turnover in a win over the patriots.  He also recovered a crucial fumble in the NFC championship game when Atlanta was moving the ball on their scoring side of the field.  Those turnovers plus the pressure he did generate undermines the narrative that Aldon was ineffective without a healthy Justin Smith.  

Justin Smith cannot magically manufacture production for any bit piece:  The narrative that Justin is responsible for Aldon's production properly rates how important Justin is to the 'Niners defense, but ignores the special skills Aldon possesses.  Aldon produced 19.5 sacks in 2012, that is a rare level of success.  He tallied 14 as a rookie.  in 2010 (Before Aldon was drafted) 'Niners team best was 8.5 for Justin Smith, he was only able to manufacture 6 for Patrick Willis or 5 for Ahmad Brooks.  In 2009 it was 6.5 for Manny Lawson, 6 for Justin Smith, and 6 for Brooks.  If Justin is so responsible for Aldon's production, why was he not able to create for anyone else?  Because while Justin is great and they are great together, Aldon is probably also great on his own, we just have not had a sample size large enough to see it.  

The Prediction:  Justin Smith is a decade older than Aldon Smith (born 1979 and 89 respectively).  Justin is trying to win a title and maybe make hall of fame consideration before he retires.  Aldon Smith is just starting his career (though with roughly the same goals).  Aldon will continue to be one of the best pass rushers in the NFL well after Justin retires. 

I am right if:  If Aldon tallies at least 14 sacks 5 times after Justin turns 35 he will prove he was never dependent on Justin for production.  I am also right if Aldon records 20 sacks in 1 season after Justin turns 35.  

I am wrong if:  If Aldon never produces a great season (16 sacks or more) without Justin.  Any result between those achievements is debatable.  If Aldon has two 14 sack seasons after Justin retires, then is is plagued by injuries we would have incomplete information to answer the debate.  

Defending Mark Sanchez: The Alex Smith story.

The longer Alex stayed in SF the more I respected him as a
quarterback and as a man.  Good luck in KC Alex.

Colin Kaepernick, Matt Ryan, Joe Flaco, Tom Brady, Eli Manning, Alex Smith, Ben Rothlisberger, Mark Sanchez, Aaron Rogers, and Jay Cutler are the only quarterbacks to reach the championship round of the playoffs since 2011.  Looking at the list there is a clear distinction between the elite (or ascendant in the case of Kaepernick) players and the others.  Matt Ryan, Tom Brady, Eli Manning, Ben Rothlisberger, Aaron Rogers, Flaco and Kaepernick vary from "obviously elite" too "probably in the top 10."  The NFL has not been as kind to Smith, Cutler, and Sanchez (I do not think it is actually kind to anyone...except the owners).

I wonder what Cutler could
accomplish with quality blocking.

Jay Cutler, Alex Smith, and Mark Sanchez know the frustration that comes with the ups and downs of the NFL.  All have been injured, had fans turn against them, advanced deep into the playoffs and had painful losing seasons.  All three received an undo amount of praise and blame for the successes and failures of the team.  All three have shown flashes of brilliance when put in a position to succeed, and all three have made embarrassing mistakes when forced to create something from nothing.  The burden of repeatedly throwing under pressure from 3rd and long breaks a quarterback down; they get injured and they develop bad habits (throwing from their back foot, rushing throwing mechanics, skipping progressions, and happy feet).  When fans turn against competent quarterbacks it is not because of their failures alone, but the failures of the whole system.  Because this is a quarterbacks league, the quarterback gets the blame.

I did say embarrassing turnovers. 

When I observe the decline of Mark Sanchez I see the career of Alex Smith put through a paper shredder and then assembled differently (Cutler is a gunslinger where Smith and Sanchez are natural care takers, because these skills valuable in different ways it is not valuable to keep Cutler in the comparison, also it would be more work).  Both highly were highly drafted quarterbacks who were successful when coupled with a strong running game and even more stout defense.  In those systems they were coached to protect the ball and trust in the team.  Both were lead by defensive minded coaches who were limited by their basic understanding of the quarterback position (Singletery/Ryan).  When the defensive talent and run support was insufficient for these teams to succeed with a caretaker quarterback the coaches were unprepared and asked their quarterbacks to preform miracles.  When caretaker quarterbacks are told to just make something happen with a predictable playbook and limited weapons embarrassing turnovers happen.  They are told to throw the ball on third and long to make something happen.  The trust in team breaks down, and the quarterback's mechanics and confidence slip.

Alex Smith was a joke to most fans before Jim Harbaugh came to San Francisco.  Harbaugh coached Alex away from bad habits formed under limited playbooks with questionable talent.  Together they worked on technique, timing, and reads.  The Harbaugh/Roman offence was designed to avoid 3rd and long and turnovers.  In that system Alex thrived.  He only attempted throws he could safely make or he checked down.  When Alex was forced to throw the ball away on 3rd down Harbaugh trusted in the defense and special teams (where Singeltary would publicly scold Alex for not forcing a throw into coverage).

At least Rex Ryan is not publicly verbally abusive.

Ryan suffers from many of the same shortcomings as Singeltary.  Both are brilliant defensive coordinators and motivators, but neither understands what makes a quarterback effective. When Sanchez was a rookie Ryan coached him to protect the ball and trusted in the run game and defense.  With the decline in talent on both sides of the ball Ryan has demanded that Sanchez do more with less, and Sanchez is simply not that kind of quarterback.  Mark and the Jets need a road paving offensive line like they had in their playoff years.  In 2012 they only managed 3.8 yards per carry (23rd in the league) compared to 4.5 in 2009 (5th best average, and they lead the league in total yards) and 4.4 in 2010 (8th best).  With that kind of production even a rookie Sanchez could be effective on 3rd and short.

I searched "Rex Ryan yells at player"
to find this.  Every other photo is
of him hugging, hi-fiving or laughing
with his players.  Remarkable.

A Sanchez detractor would say "but Alex Smith had a completion percentage over 60 then over 70 in his two years of success where Mark's best year was only 56.7."  I would counter that by saying that A: Mark was only a third year quarterback at that time (where the best mark Alex had by then was 58.1); and B: Sanchez was able to have that success with an offensive game plan from 1978.  Alex did not have real success until he was paired with an excellent quarterback coach.  I do not think Sanchez will ever have that chance (excellent quarterback coaches are rare, if it was easy every team would have one), but if he did I imagine he would prove many of his doubters wrong (the way Alex has over the last two seasons).

The Prediction: If Mark Sanchez is matched with a good quarterback coach on a decent team, he will complete at least 60% of his passes, throw more touchdowns than interceptions, and lead his team to a playoff birth.
I am wrong if:  I am wrong if Sanchez is paired with an excellent head coach with a history of success at the quarterback position and continues to disappoint (then he is just like the other 7 billion humans who are not able to do an incredibly difficult job at the highest level while large men are trying to tackle him to the ground).

Sports popularity, and how to fit the NHL in America.

Hockey is a great sport, but the average ratings for the NHL's most recent championships was a relatively small 3.3 metered market rating (mmr) = 8.6 million viewers) when compared to the other North American team sports.   The 2013 Stanley Cup finals had their best ratings in history, and that amounted to just over a quarter (26.6%) of the viewers the NBA finals pulled (12.4mmr) per game.   If you added the viewers for every Stanley Cup finals game (8.6 x 3 = 51.6 million), and then doubled that number (103.2 million), it would still be less than the SuperBowl pull of 111 million viewers  (46.5mmr).  When the giants swept the World Series it did not provide drama (except to those in Norther California) and consequently drew historically low ratings at 7.7mmr; which is still over twice what the Stanley Cup drew.

The NHL is growing in popularity, but it is not catching up.

Why is the NHL less accessible (to American audiences)?  
Do American viewers only watch high scoring sports?  The rules the NBA and NFL have implemented to increase scoring underlines that point.  As does the popularity of NFL redone and it's ADD style worship of every score.  Hockey is low scoring game, can it compete?  Yes it absolutely can.   In the NFL the most famous stars are offensive players, but some of their most popular teams are defensively lead franchises (Steelers, NY Giants, the current 49'ers).  Baseball is also a low scoring sport.  We love the home run kings (until they pop dirty for steroids), but we also love pitchers who throw perfect games (and no hitters, when twitter spread the word that Tim Lincecom was going for a no hitter ratings spiked as giants fans rushed their way too the TV.).  Low scoring games are acceptable to the American audience, so long as it is low scoring because of defensive competence, not offensive incompetence, and (this is crucial) so long as we understand the difference.

I would love to play basketball with the president.
This has nothing to do with the article.

Do American viewers only watch sports they understand?  As a kid I played touch football in the street with my friends.  I shoot hoops with my brother on the lopsided basketball rim in our back yard.  It is not a coincidence that I far more invested in watching those two sports than any other.  I did not really play baseball as a kid, and I do not watch much baseball now (though I do watch more baseball than hockey).  Is my enjoyment of sport permanently linked to my experiences playing it?  Hockey has creative rules, the penalty box and in action substitutions are unique among major sports, and I think they are fascinating, but I do not watch Hockey.  I do not understand what makes a special player, though I can recognize spectacular plays.  It is hard for hockey to hold my attention when most of the action is meaningless to me.  Do I have a fundamental appreciation for the exploits of professional basketball and football players because I know how hard it is to compete against someone who who is 6'7" 260lbs?   Maybe the innovations of hockey are too alien to me, and I want to watch what I know.  Maybe we do not want to be able to go behind the goal and still be in play (also technically possible in basketball, but there is not a large grounded obstruction on the court--unless Kendrick Perkins is in the game).  Maybe hockey will forever be more popular in Canada and the northern states because they have the ice required for the recreational play that creates an attachment to the game.  I do think Americans are confused by hockey where we feel a connection to our the sports we play (or played) recreationally, but...

I believe early recreational influences can be overcome.  (As I previously stated) I almost never played baseball, and it is not my sport of choice, but when the SF Giants were making a run at the world series I watched most of it, and I thoroughly enjoyed sharing the experience with my girlfriend and family (who are wise enough to appreciate baseball).  Following those two world series wins my interest in baseball for the sake of baseball has increased, even if it is a distant third to basketball and football.  Youth soccer boomed in popularity across America in the 90's (and created the ubiquity of soccer moms (and the term soccer moms)), but where are all the soccer fans?  They grew up to watch more Football, Baseball, and Basketball.  Why?  I have no idea, some still watch soccer, especially the world cup, but soccer is not the ratings giant in America that it should be if childhood sport were the only ingredient.  The NFL is by far the most popular sport in America, and it has millions of female fans (there are more male fans, but female NFL fans are a rapidly growing market).  Unlike basketball, softball, and soccer it is very rare for young girls to play tackle football, yet they are fans.  The female audience acclimated to the game, largely without playing it.  If the NFL is the leading sport by viewership in America, then Hockey can reach a mainstream audience (both sports are low scoring, feature controlled violence, and the stars faces/bodies are obscured by helmets and padding).

How hockey can become mainstream:  I was drawn to football because my childhood friends were, and that was the early 90's when it was exciting to be a 49'ers fan.  I was drawn to basketball because I was tall, and I made new friends who wanted me to play with them, this was in the late 90's and early 2000's when the Sacramento Kings were good.  I was drawn to baseball because those that I loved were excited about the Giants during the most important and exciting part of the baseball year.  These sports were able to capture my attention at the right time and pull me in for good.  Hockey can do this too, but it needs to stop competing head to head with the NBA.  I had time and interest to invest in my new teams and the collective experience with other fans. The NHL can build on this better if it claimed a part of the year as its own.  As they currently stand their regular season starts a little after the NBA regular season and during the NFL season, and I do not hear much about it.  The rest of the NHL season is overshadowed by the NFL, NFL playoffs, and the NBA.  Casual sports fans do not have the energy to invest in the NHL with everything going on in two other major sports leagues (and their lives, jobs, kids, friends).  After the SuperBowl the major sports ratings transition to NCAA March Madness, then to the NBA playoffs.  The NHL has made the unfortunate tactical mistake to start their playoffs moments after the NBA playoffs begin.  Then they compound that mistake by starting their finals while most casual sports fans are focused on the NBA finals. This ensures that throughout the entire NHL season they must compete with the major story lines from other sports.  This is easily fixed.  The easiest time to draw in casual fans is in the championship round, we want to see history, protecting that event must be the goal for the NHL to grow. If the NHL moved their season back a few weeks they would still compete with the NBA and NFL for much of their season (all sports must face some overlap) but the most important part of the season (playoffs and finals) would own two or three weeks of being the most important North American sports competition with undivided media and fan attention (I was interested in the Stanley Cup finals, but I was already neglecting my girlfriend 3 nights a week for the NBA playoffs).  The NHL can create true fans when they have their undivided attention, then do something spectacular, and explain why it was spectacular, and that will make us want to watch for the next special moment.

Hockey is a winter sport, it will insult purists if they move the season to cover the majority of spring (and into summer), and they could achieve much of the same thing by starting the season earlier (allowing them to start their season/playoffs/finals before the NBA), but that means more competition with the NFL, which is currently a losing proposition, so NHL competition committee, move your season back three weeks.

The prediction:  This will not happen.  There is no reason not too, other than sticking with tradition, but the NHL finals are far better off competing with baseball spring training/early season than the NBA finals.
Odds I am right:  99% if they were going to change this they would have done so by now.

Greg Oden will sign with the Miami Heat.

Oden is relevant because he is one of the
few people in the world who can do this.

I think Greg Oden is looking for 3 things in his NBA comeback:  

Money:  Greg Oden knows that this might be his last time cashing an NBA paycheck.  He knows that his next job will not pay as much as this job, even if he takes the veterans minimum.  Financial security for himself and his family is at stake, even as a first overall pick his Portland earnings were limited by the rookie wage scale.  It would be hard for anyone in his position to turn down any extra guaranteed money. 

Success:  For Greg Oden his career has not been a success.  He knows it.  He knows that his injuries contributed to the early demise of a talented Portland team.  He knows he was a very raw player in Portland. He knows he was almost as likely to foul out as post a double double.  He knows he can be better, he knows he has the gifts to be an impact player.  He wants to play for a team where he can be successful, he wants to play the right number of minutes (not so many as to strain his knees) and where he can master his craft. This success is not about winning games, he won plenty of games in Portland, they were regularly in the playoffs, this success is about becoming a player who can contribute to those wins in a big way (but that big way starts will small improvements and carefully monitored minutes).  

Fun:  Greg Oden seems like someone who really enjoyed basketball before going to the NBA.  He was good at it, and people loved him for it.  He was miserable in Portland.  He felt he was letting everyone down, all of those people who loved him because he was good now seemed to hate him because he was not producing.  More than that, being injured sucks.  When a man is young and gifted it is hard to understand how and why his body is betraying him.  It creates a mental disconnect between what life is and what it should be.  That disconnect is difficult to deal with.  I think Greg Oden wants to play someplace where he can enjoy the game like he did in high-school/college.  I think he wants to play some place without pressure on him.  I think he wants to play as part of a winning team, because on a winning team the pressure will be on the established leaders (if Miami fails to win a title next year is Oden going to be blamed or Bosh/Wade/Lebron, the answer is Lebron, then Bosh, then Wade, even though it is probably Wades fault).  Oden really wants to play on a winning team because winning is fun, and he wants to be part of that again.  

The Suitors; Money, Success, Fun and the downside:  

Dallas Mavericks:  Money:  The money will be the best in Dallas, which can offer significant without paying the luxury tax.  Oden can also cash checks without state income tax. 

Success:  Oden can find success by playing with Dirk, who will allow Oden to focus on his natural gifts (rebounding and defense) while he develops the raw parts of his game.  

Fun:  Dallas is likely to win with Oden (playoffs) but not to contend for a title.  

Downside:  If Dallas can not sign Samuel Dlaembert, then Oden will be their starting center; which brings pressure to produce, pressure to play more minutes (and corresponding pressure on his knees).  

Sacramento Kings:  Money:  Sacramento has enough money to spend to get Oden, but they also have a high income tax (I doubt the marginal tax rate is really a factor in free agent decisions).  

Success: In Sacramento Oden can play a back up role, allowing him to compete against weaker smaller bench players and allowing him time to develop his game.  

Fun: Oden will not face pressure to win in Sacramento, the fans are excited about the new owners and the arena construction and are relieved to be keeping their team, we know the Kings are a lottery team and any positive development is enough.  Oden can take his time and the Sacramento Kings fans will be happy.  

Downside:  The Kings will lose, and lose a lot.  Even worse we are a dysfunctional team, and dysfunction is not fun or conducive to success.  Much of that dysfunction left with the Malloffs but our most talented player (Demarcus Cousins) is also our most immature, immaturity that Oden will be practicing against every day.  

New Orleans Pelicans:  Money: New Orleans has a little more money to offer than Sacramento without going over the cap, and possibly more than Dallas (if Dallas is able to sign Dalembert).  

Success:  New Orleans has quality power forwards who can play enough center to allow Oden to produce off the bench, but his skill strength and size will be valuable to this roster.  

Fun:  The Pelicans are a young team that should be improving.  These teams are often the most fun to watch, and look like the most fun to be on.  There is no pressure to contend and every win is exciting.

Downside:  There are not many downsides here.  Playing with Anthony Davis will generate comparisons of the number 1 overall picks, especially if one or both continue to struggle at saying healthy.  

San Antonio Spurs:  Money:  According to hoopsHype, San Antonio's roster for 2013 is only $600k more expensive than Sacramento's.  Someone is getting ripped off in Sacramento.  I read that Miami had an advantage in the Greg Oden sweepstakes because they preserved their mid level exception ($3.18million), and thus could out bid San Antonio who could only offer the veterans minimum ($1.68million) but someone's information must be wrong because San Antonio's current contracts are not much more expensive than a team that just offered $52 million dollars to Andre Iguodala, surely San Antonio can match $3.18 million.  

Success:  Greg Oden will be able to lean in the best system in basketball from one of the greatest players and professionals ever.  Popovich is one of the great teachers in the game, and no team is better at developing talent than San Antonio.  

Fun:  Winning is fun.  High quality basketball is fun.  

Downside:  Popovich will yell at Oden as he struggles to learn a complex offense that takes most players two years too learn.  There is great pressure to win in San Antonio, where every season the only goal is to win another title (but most that pressure will be on Duncan, Parker, Ganobili, and Leonard).  Of all teams, the spurs offer the least amount of time on the court.  Either Duncan or Splitter are always posted in the center position and Oden will probably only generate meaningful minutes in games that Duncan is resting.  

Miami Heat:  Money:  The mid level exception is good money, and probably around what everyone else is offering.  

Success:  The Heat can afford to play Oden when and how is best for his recovery as their dynamic system does not require a center against most teams, and Haslem and Andersen have already developed chemestry with the Heat team.  The Heat will be invested in developing Oden because they need more size against a quickly improving eastern conference and if they face San Antonio again (who I believe they were lucky to beat).  

Fun:  The heat are a fun regular season team.  They are no longer being punished by fans and the media for the decision.  They are able to focus on playing good fast paced basketball for the regular season, and Oden will get to be a part of a fun winning team (and it bares repeating, if the Heat lose, the pressure will always fall on Lebron James).  

Downside:  Will Oden be afraid of being called a front runner?  The Miami pace is not the best fit for Oden, and it would be a struggle to play Oden along side Anderson.  

The prediction:  I believe Oden will sign with the Heat because they have made positive and consistent inquiries into his availability.  I think that the guaranteed money from Miami will be close to the same as for the other teams.  I think Oden believes he can contribute to a fun and successful team in Miami while developing his game.  I think that Oden knows that the game will be simplified playing with the space that the forwards Lebron and Bosh generate.  Mostly I think Oden has wanted to play for Miami all along (which I can understand).  

I am wrong if: If Oden does not sign in Miami I will be wrong.  This is a real prediction (I though Howard would go to Houston, but the LA article was more fun to write), but not one I am very confident in now that I have looked at what San Antonio, Dallas, and New Orleans can offer.  I would  not judge Greg Oden if he took the most guaranteed money he could get, regardless of fit, but I think that the best fit for his career (if he can stay healthy) is to learn the nuances of the game in San Antonio.  

In NCAA football, it pays to cheat, so long as you have good timing.

A booster gave this player a golden football?  There is
no possible way I could know anything about that.  

Pete Carol and Chip Kelly are smart men.  They know their craft, they know how to lead, but their best shared feature may just be that they know when to leave.

Both men had great success as college coaches (in the same conference even), recruiting top offensive talent and installing excellent systems to turn that talent into regular championship contenders.  

Both men turned down offers in the NFL, and both made statement about how they have a great job and it would be foolish to leave it.  

Both men left those jobs for the NFL.  They both said that they were ready for a change.  They both said that they had an offer from the right team at the right time.  That may be true, but that is not why they left.  

Both men allowed dubious recruiting practices to occur at their school.  Did they know who was giving the money/gifts to which players and how much?  Probably not, but they knew more than enough to be suspicious.  Professional football coaches (and NCAA division 1 coaches are professionals, they may be paid less than their NFL counterparts, but that is their profession, making them professionals, and they) are control freaks.  Every moment of practice is scripted, and coaches try to control as much of every moment in every game as they possibly can.  It is impossible to not notice the effect that the boosters have their players. These coaches know what happens when they arrange a meeting between a recruit and a booster.  Does the coach personally introduce them, probably not, that is far too obvious, but they make sure the meeting happens.  

These coaches (and countless other NCAA coaches who are cheating in the exact same way) also know when the investigations are coming.  They have friends in high places, and the more successful they are the more influential friends they make.  I am sure they are warned of impending investigations, and if they are not able to cover their tracks they are also warned when sanctions are coming.  Frankly it is obvious, with the 24 hour sports media even casual fans knew when USC and Oregon were being investigated, and we knew when sanctions were likely.  

These two coaches left their perfect jobs at the perfect time, just before they would have to pay the price for their unfair advantages that helped to create their success.  If Chip Kelly and Pete Carol are forced to compete against division 1 competition without offering as many full ride scholarships as the competition they would probably get their butts kicked.  Even if they did well they would probably look poor compared to the next (cheating) wonder-kid who is able to offer scholarships to the top talent (and who's booster are still allowed unfettered access to the recruits and players).  The nice NFL jobs with talented teams and nice NFL paychecks would probably diminish to nice, but not as nice NFL jobs (maybe they accept a coordinator position or risk coaching a team with relatively less talent) for significantly less money.  

You all get a bonus if you don't
splash me with ice water

I dislike that these coaches are able to reap the rewards of cheating and simply side step all consequences by fleeing to the NFL.  It drives me crazy that no one in the sports media even talks about their duplicity.  They talk about how excited these coaches are to give it a go at the NFL but never mention the kids who they made promises too who are suffering sanctions that the coaches deserve (not the future NFL players, but those without scholarships who are doing it for the love of the game).  Sports reporters are not journalists, it is their job to entertain, but I wish one had the courage to ask Chip Kelly what he would say to the players who he abandoned to face sanctions he deserved.  

The Prediction:  This will keep happening, a lot.  Over the next several years over half of the NCAA coaches who are offered NFL jobs will be fleeing a team that is about to face sanctions for recruiting violations, and the NFL and the media will continue to ignore the obvious duplicity and they will never receive consequences for the systems they allowed and profited from.  

I am Wrong If:  If the NFL changes their policy to extend NCAA sanctions for recruiting violations to suspensions and fines for NFL coaches I will be wrong in this prediction, but happy. 

The Andrew Wiggins (2014 NBA) draft will be rigged.

Look where Andrew Wiggins' his head is, that is a real 10ft rim.

Adam Silver will live up to the David Stern legacy by producing a draft that will be a dream for every conspiracy theorist.  The only question is what team will he rig it for.  Lets examine why the league would want to rig the draft in their favor (as well as why not).

Philidelphia 76ers:  Arguments For:  Philadelphia is a solid market with a good but not great legacy and there would not be too many people crying conspiracy if one of the worst teams in the league won the draft lottery. We know stars from Philadelphia can have national appeal (Iverson, Dr. J).  They have rarely sucked or tanked which makes this season forgivable.
Arguments Against:  The league does not want to reward obvious tanking.

I hope he recovers.  Knee trouble
destroyed a potential dynasty. 

Portland Trail Blazers: Arguments For:  Portland has had terrible injury luck.  If Oden returns and develops into a star for another team Silver will want to help Portland recover by giving them a high pick in the best draft Since Oden/Druant or Olajuwon/Jordan.  There is no way Portland blows it a third time...right?  (I know I skipped 2003)
Arguments Against: There is not enough financial incentive to rig a draft for Portland.  Every time Portland wins the lottery their future star develops career limiting injuries.  The NBA does not want their next great star to suffer the same fate as Walton, Bowie, and Oden.

Charlotte Bobcats:  Arguments For:  Charlotte is losing money, or at least making less than they should, and the league does not want Michael Jordan's team to be forced to move.  It would be an awesome story for the league to have the team owned by their most famous and marketable player ever draft the next big thing.
Arguments Against: Charlotte is as small as NBA markets get.

Milwaukee Bucks: Arguments For: Milwaukee has suffered as the sacrificial lamb that is the eighth seed enough times to warrant a reward for good behavior should their quest for a painful crushing in the playoffs fall short.
Arguments Against:  Milwaukee is facing the same small market crush most teams face.

Cleveland Cavaliers:  Arguments For:  This is the last step in repaying Cleveland for the pain and suffering caused by Lebron.
Arguments Against:  They probably make the playoffs next year, if they are in the lottery their odds of winning will be low.  It would show too much favoritism for Cleveland to win the lottery 3 times in 4 years (Silver only gets a few premium draft picks to give out to owners to buy favors, he is not going to waste his first one on a team that already has a strong young core and a chance at Lebron 2014).

Boston Celtics:  Arguments For:  The league is better when the Celtics are relevant.  The Celtics get great ratings.  The league has not rigged anything in the Celtics favor for a long time.
Arguments Against: The league does not want to reward obvious tanking.

Atlanta Hawks: Arguments For:  Atlanta has enough talent that if they drop into the lottery then add Wiggins they will quickly return to the playoffs (like Carmelo in Denver) and be relevant and profitable.  The league would be rewarding a team that does everything it could to try and win.
Arguments Against:  It is unlikely that Atlanta misses the playoffs in the top heavy eastern conference.  It is going to take less than 38 wins to claim one of the last two eastern playoff slots.

Utah Jazz: Arguments For:  Rewarding a team that does everything it can to win every season except this season.
Arguments for the Jazz winning the number 2 pick in the draft:  Jabari Parker, the prospect who is almost as good exciting as Andrew Wiggins, is Mormon.  He would absolutely be embraced by the state of Utah. With Parker the and several young an talented players the Jazz would quickly morph into contenders, which allows the league to market their young star earlier and more aggressively.
Arguments Against: The Utah Jazz will probably never be a nationally embraced team, and that limits the leagues playoff ratings and money.  They could make excellent bad guys (like the 2011 Heat) and fans love a villain (because for some reason Americans love rooting against the boring team that is filled with people who are actually really nice).

If you build it, we will come, expesially if there is a
a young superstar to watch develop for 7 years before he
breaks our collective hearts by moving to L.A.

Sacramento Kings: Arguments For: The league wants to reward the new owners for driving up the bidding and setting an even higher bar for the value of an NBA franchize.  They also want to reward owners for putting money into a new stadium (the NFL awards them with Super Bowls, the NBA with a suspicious draft process).
Arguments Against: There is no way I am lucky enough for my favorite team to get a franchise altering star.

LA Lakers: Arguments For: The crowned jewel of the NBA was just spurned.  The Lakers get the best TV ratings of anyone.  Kobe and the new star would be a gigantic story.  They need to make sure the most popular franchise can survive after the death of their most successful owner.   The league needs to make up for screwing them on the CP3 deal (though I understand why they did, New Orleans needed to tank hard with real prospects, not the middling almost competency the Lakers were offering).  This is not the first time weird things have happened in favor of the Lakers.
Arguments Against: Silver might be afraid of making it that obvious it is all rigged in favor of the Lakers.

Orlando Magic: Arguments For: The were also screwed by Dwight.
Arguments Against:  They are notoriously unlucky whit star players.  Dwight and Shaq leave.  Hill was constantly injured.  McGrady wore down under the pressure of caring a franchise.

Dallas Mavericks: Arguments For: Dallas can generate good ratings.  Mark Cuban is interesting and good for the league.  The young star to couple with Dirk would make both more interesting to America in the last years of Dirks career.
Arguments Against:  If Dallas does not make the playoff theirs lottery odds are low.  Cuban's public personality and brutal honesty often seem to annoy Stern (and possibly by extension Silver) and the other Owners.  They may not want to rig things for the guy who cannot be quiet whenever he gets screwed by the league.

Denver Nuggets:  It seems Denver is the only team that can epically lose in the 2014 draft as the only team with a completely unprotected pick.  Orlando has the choice of the Denver or Nicks 2014 pick, so Denver should be very invested in not being in the lottery.  I guess this could also happen to the Nicks, as both Orlando and Denver can claim their pick (if somehow the Nicks and Denver finish 1 and 2 in the draft lottery) but I cannot imagine the Nicks missing the playoffs in the Eastern Conference, they are a playoff team even if Carmelo Anthony does not play a single game, and they will not tank because they have no first round pick.

New Orleans Pelicans:  The league wants to reward the team for changing their name and generating new revenue through both selling both retro Hornets jerseys and new Pelicans jerseys.   The league wants to succeed in New Orleans even as the rest of america forgets about Katrina.  The league still wants to reward the owners who bought the franchise that was once hemorrhaging money in a crushed New Orleans economy.  The league still wants to help them after getting ditched by Chris Paul by giving them two first picks, like they did with Cleveland.
Arguments Against:  The pelicans already won a significantly good player in Anthony Davis to build around. They will be close to the playoffs if not in them.  They will be a playoff team soon even if they do not get a top pick this year.

Detroit Pistons:  Detroit is a popular franchise who's biggest star (Isiah Thomas) was a villain more than a star.  They have enough talent to quickly become a contender.  They have played in some highly rated finals.
Arguments Against:  America never attached itself to the pistons, even when they were great.  They have been in one of the worst rated finals ever (Spurs Vs Pistons).

Toronto Raptors:  Arguments For:  What better way to get Canadian fans to watch the Canadian team than to have the best Canadian prospect ever drafted by them.
Arguments Against:  The league does not seem to care about Toronto.  They have been spurned by several superstars in embarrassing fashion and they are only rewarded with the top pick in the lousy 2006 Bargnani draft.

Phoenix Suns: The suns get good ratings.  They can hold onto a superstar which avoiding creating embarrassment for the league (which they do not mind considering how much revenue all the drama generates).  They will truly be bad, so they need the help and no one will accuse them of rigging the draft.
Argument Against: Phoenix is another city that never seems to get NBA draft lottery love.

Minnesota TimberWolves: Arguments For: Their name is awesome.  They would be a super exciting team with Rubio, Love and 2014 draft superstar.  Seriously, this team would get tons of national and international love with this roster.  The Canadian Wiggins might not mind living in Minnesota.
Arguments Against:  Minnesota has no history of the NBA rigging things in its favor.

Washington Wizards:  Arguments For:  With their talented core they would quickly progress into a contender.  Washington is a larger market than people realize and it is largely untapped by the NBA because of the Wizard's continued mediocrity.
Arguments Against:  They already won the draft lottery recently.  They will likely make the eastern playoffs.

So, with the league conspiring to make every possible team a lottery a winner while also conspiring to keep many from winning any way the ping pong balls fall it was absolutely part of a grand design by the league, because life is much more interesting with conspiracy theories, and there is so much more for the internet to complain about.

I am wrong if there is no real national complaining about rigging:  The complaining will be ubiquitous among NBA followers if the Lakers jump to one of the top draft picks (except of course Lakers fans, many of whom deny that they get favorable treatment from refs) .  If the Utah Jazz jump the complaints will likely be minimal, it is just less interesting to accuse the league of rigging in favor of the Utah Jazz.

Odds I am Right: The Lakers and Celtics will generate by far the most complaining about rigging, followed by the Bobcats, and Kings (even though teams are exactly who should be winning the lottery).  The Cavaliers, Magic, and Pelicans would generate grumbling because of their recent lottery luck and loss of a superstar.  I will include the Mavericks because Dallas-Fort Worth media market is huge (7th after the SF/Oakland/San Jose area).  That is only 8 out of 18 possible teams (there are only 14 teams in the lottery, I do not know which 4 will fill out the early playoff losers).  For simplicity I will assume every team has equal lottery odds (though everyone expects the Bobcats to have near a 20% chance and the Mavericks would have near a 1% chance, but I do not want to multiply each projected record of the teams that would create conspiracy complaints by their equivalent lottery odds to generate reasonable lottery expectations, and then total it (and maybe divide by 100%) to generate the expected odds of complaining.  8/18=44.44%
Odds I am Wrong: 10/18=55.55%

The Eagles will win the unpredictable NFC East. Damn You Bill Barnwell.

Bill Barnwell is so evil that only low
resolution photographs of him exist.

After I spent an hour last night and an hour this morning trying to write my predictions of the Eagles rebound season I find a new ESPN/Grantland article by Bill Barnwell ranking the Eagles as his number 2 team primed for a rebound.  What a jerk he is publishing his quality informed work on the biggest sports site in the world before I can finish my amateur version.

It is already 90% written, so I might as well publish it.

In the NFL things change quickly.  The Raiders went from the SuperBowl in 2003 to doormat at the record speed of one off season.  The Eagles went from "Dream Team" to rebuilding over the course of two off seasons.  In the NFL teams often rebound just as quickly.  The Eagles do not need to look far for an example: In 2012 the Redskins won the NFC East after being last in 2011.  

I think the Eagles collapse was premature, and that they still have most of the "Dream Team" talent that was so exciting.  

In 2011 the Eagles had a scoring differential of +68 points, good enough for 9th in the league.  That leads to an expected record of 9.8 wins.  If not for bad luck (remember Justin Smith chasing down LeSean McCoy to force a fumble and save the game for S.F.) the Eagles likely would have made the playoffs that year.  As numerous 5 and 6 seeds have shown us, all a team needs is some momentum, and a chance.  

The 2012 Eagles specialty: fumbling. 

2012 was a disaster for the Eagles:  The Eagles defense was particularly embarrassing in the second half of the season.  Following their week 7 bye week (when they fired their defensive coordinator) they surrendered at least 27 points in 9 out of 10 games, and an average of 31.9 points per game, worse than any teams season average.  The exception was 'holding' Tampa Bay to 21 points, the only Eagles win in the second half of the season.  Expect the Eagles defense to be better next season.  First; they will move away from the disastrous 9-wide technique that left their interior so permeable. Second; it is hard for professional athletes to be consistently terrible from year to year with how much luck and injuries can fluctuate.  Third; the Eagles offense will improve, and that will improve their defensive field position and time of possession.  

Field Position and Turnovers Matter: According to advancednflstats.com (compiling data accrued from 2000-2012), over a season for every 3 yards gained in average starting field position a team can expect to add 2 wins.  That sounds like a lot of wins for very few yards, but for Philadelphia's 180 drives 3 extra yards per drive would add up to 540 yards.  That may still sound small, but 540 subtracted from the 5491 yards allowed would move the Eagles defense from the 15th to the 5th best defense (4951), behind Seattle (4899).  A jump like that is easily worth two wins.  Improving in kickoff and punt coverage can help, but the real swings in starting field possession centers on turnovers (an average of 40 yards of field position change occurs per turnover).  The 2012 Eagles the worst in the league in 3 of 4 key turnover categories:  -24 in turnover differential last year (worst), with 37 total turnovers (worst) and 129 points surrendered from turnovers (worst), and a -89 net turnover points (3rd worst).  A total of 29% of their 444 surrendered points can be directly attributed to turnovers (only Pittsburgh's 34% was worse).  All of the top five teams in avoiding give-away points were serous championship contenders (Patriots, 'Niners, 'Hawks, Falcons, and Redskins), and 11 of 12 playoff teams were in the top 14 (the Bengals were 19th).

The Eagles will be much better at avoiding turnovers next season:  A teams turnover differential hinges on 4 factors; quarterback ability, ability to protect, ability to create pressure, and mostly luck.  The evil Bill Barnwell does an excellent job of explaining how each of these are (or are not) statistically significant.  A teams ability to generate turnovers from year to year fluctuates with luck, injuries, and more luck.  The most constant non-random factor was that a few quarterbacks could buck the random turnover trend over multiple seasons, and you know the names of those quarterbacks (hint, Michel Vick never one of those quarterbacks).  Though Vick has consistently generated turnovers throughout his career he is unlikely to continue at the horrible 2012 rate.  For the first time in his career he has famously been taught how to properly hold the football while running, but the real improvement will come from the offensive line.

Expect to see more of this in 2013

The key change for the Eagles in avoiding turnovers is happening in front of Michael Vick:  The eagles had the 5th worst offensive line in 2012 according to football outsiders.  This was less too do with talent, and more to do with injuries as three of their top blockers missed significant time in 2012.  Their return along with the addition of the number 4 overall pick OT Lane Johnson should improve the Eagles in every way.  A healthy line means a healthy and free quarterback, who throws less under pressure allowing him to avoid interceptions and fumbles. A healthy line means a more successful run game, which leads to fewer 3rd and long situations.  3rd and long is dangerous as the quarterback must throw deep down the field against a defense geared against the pass.  Alex Smith improved from a punchline in 2010 to a high quality quarterback because the 49ers offense focused on avoiding 3rd and long and coached him to avoid turnovers above trying to make something happen.

Vick will still Fumble, and he will still throw costly interceptions, but those will happen much less in 2013. With a healthy offensive line, a productive Vick and proven weapons like LeSean McCoy, DeSean Jackson, and Jeremy Maclin with the hopeful emergence of rookie Zach Ertz will create a very potent offense that will win the crazy to predict NFC East.  

I am wrong if the Eagles fail to make the playoffs:  If the Giants or Redskins win 14 games but the Eagles still make the wild card this article still counts as a win.  This is not about the regression of the competition but the nature of talented and smart NFL teams to rebound.  The Eagles are talented, we will see if they are smart.

Odds I am right:  I have a 35% chance.  25% chance they win the division (compared to 35% for the Giants, 25% for the redskins, and 15% for the Cowboys), and a 10% of making the wildcard.  

Colin Kaepernick will improve while Russell Wilson will regress.

I am a ‘Niners fan and I am very biased. 

In the second half of last season I was frustrated with how natural Wilson looked as a quarterback, especially compared to Kaepernick; who for all of his ungodly natural gifts looked stiff and slow to react.  I watched Wilson throw catchable passes to where a receiver was going to be open, and ground my teeth as Kaepernick beamed lasers into quickly closing windows after his receiver had made his move.   I marveled at how Wilson would expertly bait an incoming rusher before escaping the pocket, yet Kaepernick seemed shocked when a defensive end was able to catch him.  Kaepernick often struggled to get the a play called, or  an audible, where Wilson and the Seahawks seamed unimaginably prepared.  To make the comparison more lopsided Seattle has added more weapons around Wilson where Kaepernick lost his favorite target.  Yet, some of those failings of Kaepernick's are exactly why I expect him to close the gap between him and Wilson next season.  (All of that is heavily subjected to perception bias, a statistical analysis could very well prove that the opposite was true, but as a fan this was my perception).  

Kaepernick is a nearly unique physical specimen, with prototypical size, throwing power and accuracy, combined with unnatural speed and power at the quarterback position (Cam Newton is the only other quarterback with all of the same tools, Wilson lacks the size and throwing power, Luck and many others lack the speed, Griffin and Vick lack the strength).  Kaepernick used those tools to compensate when he did not have the read of a play, or time to get the correct set play.  Most quarterbacks do not have that luxury.  Last year I feared that in spite of all of the great plays Kaepernick was not a natural quarterback, and that he would plateau early, like so many physically gifted athletes do at the quarterback position.  

Two realizations changed my thinking on the matter.  

Kap Excercises his Brain:  An ESPN Radio commentator (Colin Cowherd I think) shared that Kaepernick was encyclopedic in his ability to ingest and apply information.  This started me on a quest to find stories of his work on the mental side of the game, and I was very impressed.  Kaepernick is well known for intense exercise regimen, and his mental exercise is just as intense and consistent.  Kap is constantly quizzing his teammates on plays, formations, audibles, the depth of routs, the blocking protections, and adjustments to defenses they will face.  It is one thing to know how a play goes, and another thing entirely to implement that knowledge at game speed, but those mental reps are well regarded by coaches and successful veterans as being key to success.  

Practice Time Matters:  If Kaepernick works this hard mentally, why was he still so raw?  For the first time Kaepernick will have a preseason, OTA’s and Mini-camps as QB1.  This will give him hundreds of  situational practice plays with the starting roster that he did not have as QB2.  Those extra reps will reduce the clock management failings (for examples look at the redzone in the 2013 Superbowl) and those hundreds of additional practice throws (helping him to master his timing with receiver) will reduce problem of forcing passes though closing windows.  

Why Wilson Will Regress:  Every defensive coordinator has seen footage of the read option, and they are
preparing their defenses for it. The defensive ends will be prepared to keep contain on both Wilson and Kaepernick, but with his size and power I expect Kaepernick to thrive from the pocket.  It will be much harder for Wilson to see and throw over the mass in front of him (but it can be done, and he will do it a lot, but over the course of a season there will be key plays where he cannot see a LB, or a DT bats down a pass, or there simply is not a throwing available).   

In short, next year the league will have time to prepare for Wilson, but Kaepernick will have time to prepare for the league. 

I am wrong if:  If Kaepernick throws more interceptions than Wilson, or if it is subjectively clear that Wilson is still the superior QB, then Kaepernick has not closed the gap. 

Odds I am wrong:  55%, and that is a 5% chance that Kaepernick does not improve compared to a 50% chance that Wilson does not regress like I believe he will, or that his new weapons offset that regression, or that defenses do not yet have the tools or schemes to effectively limit the read option or hold outside contain against Wilson.  

Andre Iguodala will be FANTASTIC with the Warriors-a post by popular request.

One request for my thoughts on the Iguodala signing counts as a popular request to me.  Iguodala will be better with the Golden State Warriors than he ever was in Denver or Philadelphia. 

One of my great pleasures in life is playing quality team basketball with a group of smart and diverse teammates.  Iguodala is a smart diverse basketball player, and the Warriors are a smart and diverse team.  Here are some aspects of quality team basketball and how Iguodala fits. 

Hustle Play:  Teams that work find ways to make the extra plays.  They crash rebounds with more aggression, they play good man defense but even better help defense, they beat their man down the court on offense and defense, and they fight for extra possessions.  The losing Warriors teams did not do this.  The 2012-13 Warriors team, a fun winning team, was great at this. 

Iggy's Fit: Iguodala is awesome at hustle basketball and will take the Warriors to another level in defense, transition play, and in winning 'fifty-fifty balls.' 

Offensive Cohesion:  Fun offensive teams fit through versatility and specialization.  Every Player sets screens and moves off screens, but one or two players specialize in it (Bogut and Lee).  Every player moves in tandem, creating a constantly changing puzzle that the defense must stay ahead of (All of the Warriors are good at this).  These teams must have stretch players (the more the better); making the defense work to protect every inch of the court (the Warriors have several elite stretch players, especially Curry). 

Iggy's Fit:  In Philadelphia Iguodala was forced attack set defenses off the dribble because his teammates were limited in their ability to move in tandem and create offensively.  Andre did his best, but those Philadelphia teams were built to struggle on offense.  In Denver Iguodala's transition speed and offensive movement was better put to use, but the team’s lack of stretch players still hampered the teams ability to create when trapped in a half court game.  In Golden State Iguodala will be freed to play his natural offensive game.  He will use his athleticism in transition, he make smart cuts to the basket, he can set a screen and roll to the basket before his defender can recover, he can catch a pass and quickly make the next pass to an open man, and he can do all of this with the freedom of not having to face the opponents best defender every night.  Iguodala's numbers might not be spectacular, because this Warriors team shares the ball so well, but his efficiency and enjoyment of the game will both be much higher. 

Hard Smart Defense:  Cohesive teams play hard defense in the system that maximizes their talent.  Teammates communicate, cover for each other, and funnel help towards the threats, and challenge shots without fouling (Individually several of the Warriors are not very good defenders, but in their system they play excellent defense, largely because of Bogut's brilliance as a defensive anchor). 

Iggy's Fit:  Iguodala is an elite perimeter defender.  Individually he is fantastic on the ball, and he possesses the rare tenacity to really battle around screens.  In the team concept he is a great help defender with the agility and quickness to flash in to help against a drive and then to run out to challenge a jump shooter.  He is excellent at anticipating passes and jumping to intercept.  The Warriors do not have the pieces to be an elite defense, but with only one great defender (Bogut) they were a very good defense, and with Iguodala to hassle the oppositions best perimeter threat that defense will improve. 

Camaraderie:  Some teams are just fun to be a part of, professional but fun.  The Warriors look like one of those teams.  Iguodala looks like a player who will fit in. 

I am wrong if:  I am not wrong, so I put the odds of his not fitting well at 0.5%.  I guess I would be wrong if he tries to force himself on the team as a isolation player, and if he becomes lazy on defense.  In Iguodala’s long and successful career those have never been his qualities, it would be insane for them to manifest now that he is on a team where he fits so well.  

Anthony Bennett will disappoint as the first pick in the NBA draft.

I apologize to Anthony Bennitt that he is the negative focus of my first real prediction.  He seems like a decent young man and a decent player.  That is exactly the problem, he will have a decent career, and that is simply not enough for the expectations of the number 1 overall pick.  

Bennett is a 'tweener.'  Specifically he is a 'tweener' forward: someone who is too small/weak to be a traditional power forward while being too slow to be a small forward.  To be effective these in-between-two-positions players must make up for their traditional deficiencies by overpowering one position while being too quick for the other.  A player like that can be useful, especially against a teams less athletic reserve players, but useful is not enough to be a star.  The game of a 'tweener' depends on an inherent flaw in his opposition.  Their games are designed to exploit a defenders lack of either quickness, strength, or size.  The top NBA players/teams are experts at covering their weaknesses, and the truly superior defenders do not have them.  

The top player in the draft should be able to expose their opponents weaknesses, but they should still at least be effective when is no weakness.  Andrew Bogut headlined a similarly flawed and unpredictable draft, and he was a disapointment compared to Chris Paul, but he still has the size and strength of a true center and a near elite ability to anchor a defense.  

Bennitt's career at best will be like that of a Paul Milsap or Jeff Green.  Both are good players, but not worthy of the top pick in the draft.  

The prediction:  Bennitt will have a solid career, maybe a 6th man award, but he will never start in all star game, he will never make an all pro team, and he will never be a true star.  

Odds I am wrong: I am wrong if he starts in the all star game, or makes the all pro team.  I only put that at a 5% chance, and I think that is a little high.  

Tim Tebow will be the most important free agent signing of the 2013 season.

Offensive Prediction: The patriots have released 3 of their top 4 receivers from last season (Hernandez, Lloyd, and Welker), and the one that is left (Gronkowski) will miss significant time this season recovering from surgery.  To start the season the patriots will be missing 3538 of last seasons 4827 passing yards, or 73%.  Even the great and powerful Tom Brady, prince of New England, hero of Boston, and immortal legend of throwing an oblong ball just far enough for the kicker to save his butt, even He will have trouble producing at his standard level with so much missing talent.  

Defensive Prediction: Bill Bealzichick the defensive genius will make up for the lost offensive production.  It was his brilliant defense that built the dynasty in New England to start with.  Except their defense efficiency was a mediocre 15th overall in 2012 according to football outsiders.  Which is a huge step up from 30th in 2011.  Ever since they were caught cheating the patriots have finished 11th, 17th, 14th, 21st, 30th, and 15th in defensive efficiency with an average ranking of 18 out of 32 teams.  Note, there are ZERO top ten finishes.  This is compared to 7th, 27th, 7th, 2nd, 14th, 13th, and 21st and an average 13th out of 32 teams in years of which the Patriots could be accused of cheating.  Those patriots defenses managed a top ten efficiency rating in 3 out of 7 seasons.  Roster change can be blamed for the defensive decline, Brady is the only holdover from the 2001 championship team, but I personally doubt it.  It is highly unlikely there to be a drastic defensive improvement counteract the offensive slippage this team will face.  

The Prediction: Due to their handicapped offense and mediocre defense the patriots will struggle to start the season.  After a 2-2 start Tom Brady will be injured, somehow by Bernard Pollard, who is not even playing against the patriots this season, but he will find a way.  Ryan Mallett will start one game but play and lose badly.  Bealzichick will have no choice but to play Tim Tebow, who through a series of hijinks, trick plays, dumb luck, and the power of prayer guides the patriots to a 6-5 finish with an 8-8 total record, and an improbable division win by tie break over the dolphins.  Tebow also converts Hernandez to evangelical Protestantism and they provide joint ministry to prison inmates.  In the playoffs Tebow will lead the Patriots in a win over the Steelers before traveling to Denver to be crushed under the boot of Peyton Manning.  

Odds I am right: 0.005%.  This is the longest of long shots, but if this comes true I need to start a career as a gambler.  

I actually think that the Patriots will 'struggle' this season, but still win 10 games and their really easy division.  Brady starts every game, Tebow is a non issue, not even a distraction.  

Dwight Howard will stay in LA-the worst choice for everyone.

I have no real reason to predict that Dwight will stay a Laker except a gut feeling that Howard will make the worst decision for everyone involved.  How so?  Let me explain:

Dwight Howard: Dwight is at his best when surrounded by athletic shooters who defend the three point line and create space for him to wreak havoc against individual-slower and weaker-defenders.  

Worst Fit:  As a Laker Dwight will be forced to share the paint with Kobe, Artest, and Gasol.  Only Kobe can stretch the floor to a decent degree, and he has never been an efficient outside shooter.  To compile the problem, none of the locked in Lakers can capably defend against 3 point shooters.  The worst aspect of this is that it would be exceptionally hard to trade any of their old expensive players for better fitting role players.  The league knows there is a premium for athletic defenders who can shoot, and you are not going to get one for an expensive aging star.  

Best Fit: Either Golden State or Houston can put Howard in the system where he was super successful in Orlando, except with far superior creators in Steph Curry and James Harden.  Plus, both those teams have multiple players who are above average (or at least average) at running out at 3 point shooters.  

I did say the worst choice for everyone; this is how it affects everyone else:

Kobe: Kobe is stuck with Dwight, Artest, Pau, and Nash, as the last few years of his career are wasted because there are no movable assets.  He spends his energy making angry faces at his teammates whenever they miss a contested jumper or he blows a defensive assignment.  

Nash: Nash does not have a teammate to run a pick and pop, and his gifts are wasted as the offense is painfully predictable.  

Pau: Gasol is stuck trying to create space for a far less efficient post player and he generates an aneurysm from Kobe and Lakers fans blaming him for everything wrong with the Lakers.

Artest: World Peace is becoming a disaster of a fit with the Lakers as he can no longer defend fast opponents nor can he create offense facing a clogged lane, armed with only a mediocre jumper. 

Houston: The Rockets miss their best chance to become a contender, an opportunity unlikely to surface again.  

Golden State: The warriors are too dependent on injury prone players; they never have both Bogut and Curry available for a playoff run at the same time, squandering their exciting potential.  

Winners: San Antonio, Miami, OKC

I am wrong if: Dwight goes to Houston or Golden State, or the Lakers are able to trade Gasol and/or World Peace for a stretch defender.
Odds of my being wrong: Pretty damn high.  Dwight might pick the right team, but more likely some GM will inexplicably gift the Lakers the kinds of athletic shooters they desperately need when they could absolutely have gotten a better deal elsewhere.  I estimate a 25% chance I am actually right, but writing about the disaster is far more entertaining.