Defending Mark Sanchez: The Alex Smith story.

The longer Alex stayed in SF the more I respected him as a
quarterback and as a man.  Good luck in KC Alex.

Colin Kaepernick, Matt Ryan, Joe Flaco, Tom Brady, Eli Manning, Alex Smith, Ben Rothlisberger, Mark Sanchez, Aaron Rogers, and Jay Cutler are the only quarterbacks to reach the championship round of the playoffs since 2011.  Looking at the list there is a clear distinction between the elite (or ascendant in the case of Kaepernick) players and the others.  Matt Ryan, Tom Brady, Eli Manning, Ben Rothlisberger, Aaron Rogers, Flaco and Kaepernick vary from "obviously elite" too "probably in the top 10."  The NFL has not been as kind to Smith, Cutler, and Sanchez (I do not think it is actually kind to anyone...except the owners).

I wonder what Cutler could
accomplish with quality blocking.

Jay Cutler, Alex Smith, and Mark Sanchez know the frustration that comes with the ups and downs of the NFL.  All have been injured, had fans turn against them, advanced deep into the playoffs and had painful losing seasons.  All three received an undo amount of praise and blame for the successes and failures of the team.  All three have shown flashes of brilliance when put in a position to succeed, and all three have made embarrassing mistakes when forced to create something from nothing.  The burden of repeatedly throwing under pressure from 3rd and long breaks a quarterback down; they get injured and they develop bad habits (throwing from their back foot, rushing throwing mechanics, skipping progressions, and happy feet).  When fans turn against competent quarterbacks it is not because of their failures alone, but the failures of the whole system.  Because this is a quarterbacks league, the quarterback gets the blame.

I did say embarrassing turnovers. 

When I observe the decline of Mark Sanchez I see the career of Alex Smith put through a paper shredder and then assembled differently (Cutler is a gunslinger where Smith and Sanchez are natural care takers, because these skills valuable in different ways it is not valuable to keep Cutler in the comparison, also it would be more work).  Both highly were highly drafted quarterbacks who were successful when coupled with a strong running game and even more stout defense.  In those systems they were coached to protect the ball and trust in the team.  Both were lead by defensive minded coaches who were limited by their basic understanding of the quarterback position (Singletery/Ryan).  When the defensive talent and run support was insufficient for these teams to succeed with a caretaker quarterback the coaches were unprepared and asked their quarterbacks to preform miracles.  When caretaker quarterbacks are told to just make something happen with a predictable playbook and limited weapons embarrassing turnovers happen.  They are told to throw the ball on third and long to make something happen.  The trust in team breaks down, and the quarterback's mechanics and confidence slip.

Alex Smith was a joke to most fans before Jim Harbaugh came to San Francisco.  Harbaugh coached Alex away from bad habits formed under limited playbooks with questionable talent.  Together they worked on technique, timing, and reads.  The Harbaugh/Roman offence was designed to avoid 3rd and long and turnovers.  In that system Alex thrived.  He only attempted throws he could safely make or he checked down.  When Alex was forced to throw the ball away on 3rd down Harbaugh trusted in the defense and special teams (where Singeltary would publicly scold Alex for not forcing a throw into coverage).

At least Rex Ryan is not publicly verbally abusive.

Ryan suffers from many of the same shortcomings as Singeltary.  Both are brilliant defensive coordinators and motivators, but neither understands what makes a quarterback effective. When Sanchez was a rookie Ryan coached him to protect the ball and trusted in the run game and defense.  With the decline in talent on both sides of the ball Ryan has demanded that Sanchez do more with less, and Sanchez is simply not that kind of quarterback.  Mark and the Jets need a road paving offensive line like they had in their playoff years.  In 2012 they only managed 3.8 yards per carry (23rd in the league) compared to 4.5 in 2009 (5th best average, and they lead the league in total yards) and 4.4 in 2010 (8th best).  With that kind of production even a rookie Sanchez could be effective on 3rd and short.

I searched "Rex Ryan yells at player"
to find this.  Every other photo is
of him hugging, hi-fiving or laughing
with his players.  Remarkable.

A Sanchez detractor would say "but Alex Smith had a completion percentage over 60 then over 70 in his two years of success where Mark's best year was only 56.7."  I would counter that by saying that A: Mark was only a third year quarterback at that time (where the best mark Alex had by then was 58.1); and B: Sanchez was able to have that success with an offensive game plan from 1978.  Alex did not have real success until he was paired with an excellent quarterback coach.  I do not think Sanchez will ever have that chance (excellent quarterback coaches are rare, if it was easy every team would have one), but if he did I imagine he would prove many of his doubters wrong (the way Alex has over the last two seasons).

The Prediction: If Mark Sanchez is matched with a good quarterback coach on a decent team, he will complete at least 60% of his passes, throw more touchdowns than interceptions, and lead his team to a playoff birth.
I am wrong if:  I am wrong if Sanchez is paired with an excellent head coach with a history of success at the quarterback position and continues to disappoint (then he is just like the other 7 billion humans who are not able to do an incredibly difficult job at the highest level while large men are trying to tackle him to the ground).