The Eagles will win the unpredictable NFC East. Damn You Bill Barnwell.

Bill Barnwell is so evil that only low
resolution photographs of him exist.

After I spent an hour last night and an hour this morning trying to write my predictions of the Eagles rebound season I find a new ESPN/Grantland article by Bill Barnwell ranking the Eagles as his number 2 team primed for a rebound.  What a jerk he is publishing his quality informed work on the biggest sports site in the world before I can finish my amateur version.

It is already 90% written, so I might as well publish it.

In the NFL things change quickly.  The Raiders went from the SuperBowl in 2003 to doormat at the record speed of one off season.  The Eagles went from "Dream Team" to rebuilding over the course of two off seasons.  In the NFL teams often rebound just as quickly.  The Eagles do not need to look far for an example: In 2012 the Redskins won the NFC East after being last in 2011.  

I think the Eagles collapse was premature, and that they still have most of the "Dream Team" talent that was so exciting.  

In 2011 the Eagles had a scoring differential of +68 points, good enough for 9th in the league.  That leads to an expected record of 9.8 wins.  If not for bad luck (remember Justin Smith chasing down LeSean McCoy to force a fumble and save the game for S.F.) the Eagles likely would have made the playoffs that year.  As numerous 5 and 6 seeds have shown us, all a team needs is some momentum, and a chance.  

The 2012 Eagles specialty: fumbling. 

2012 was a disaster for the Eagles:  The Eagles defense was particularly embarrassing in the second half of the season.  Following their week 7 bye week (when they fired their defensive coordinator) they surrendered at least 27 points in 9 out of 10 games, and an average of 31.9 points per game, worse than any teams season average.  The exception was 'holding' Tampa Bay to 21 points, the only Eagles win in the second half of the season.  Expect the Eagles defense to be better next season.  First; they will move away from the disastrous 9-wide technique that left their interior so permeable. Second; it is hard for professional athletes to be consistently terrible from year to year with how much luck and injuries can fluctuate.  Third; the Eagles offense will improve, and that will improve their defensive field position and time of possession.  

Field Position and Turnovers Matter: According to advancednflstats.com (compiling data accrued from 2000-2012), over a season for every 3 yards gained in average starting field position a team can expect to add 2 wins.  That sounds like a lot of wins for very few yards, but for Philadelphia's 180 drives 3 extra yards per drive would add up to 540 yards.  That may still sound small, but 540 subtracted from the 5491 yards allowed would move the Eagles defense from the 15th to the 5th best defense (4951), behind Seattle (4899).  A jump like that is easily worth two wins.  Improving in kickoff and punt coverage can help, but the real swings in starting field possession centers on turnovers (an average of 40 yards of field position change occurs per turnover).  The 2012 Eagles the worst in the league in 3 of 4 key turnover categories:  -24 in turnover differential last year (worst), with 37 total turnovers (worst) and 129 points surrendered from turnovers (worst), and a -89 net turnover points (3rd worst).  A total of 29% of their 444 surrendered points can be directly attributed to turnovers (only Pittsburgh's 34% was worse).  All of the top five teams in avoiding give-away points were serous championship contenders (Patriots, 'Niners, 'Hawks, Falcons, and Redskins), and 11 of 12 playoff teams were in the top 14 (the Bengals were 19th).

The Eagles will be much better at avoiding turnovers next season:  A teams turnover differential hinges on 4 factors; quarterback ability, ability to protect, ability to create pressure, and mostly luck.  The evil Bill Barnwell does an excellent job of explaining how each of these are (or are not) statistically significant.  A teams ability to generate turnovers from year to year fluctuates with luck, injuries, and more luck.  The most constant non-random factor was that a few quarterbacks could buck the random turnover trend over multiple seasons, and you know the names of those quarterbacks (hint, Michel Vick never one of those quarterbacks).  Though Vick has consistently generated turnovers throughout his career he is unlikely to continue at the horrible 2012 rate.  For the first time in his career he has famously been taught how to properly hold the football while running, but the real improvement will come from the offensive line.

Expect to see more of this in 2013

The key change for the Eagles in avoiding turnovers is happening in front of Michael Vick:  The eagles had the 5th worst offensive line in 2012 according to football outsiders.  This was less too do with talent, and more to do with injuries as three of their top blockers missed significant time in 2012.  Their return along with the addition of the number 4 overall pick OT Lane Johnson should improve the Eagles in every way.  A healthy line means a healthy and free quarterback, who throws less under pressure allowing him to avoid interceptions and fumbles. A healthy line means a more successful run game, which leads to fewer 3rd and long situations.  3rd and long is dangerous as the quarterback must throw deep down the field against a defense geared against the pass.  Alex Smith improved from a punchline in 2010 to a high quality quarterback because the 49ers offense focused on avoiding 3rd and long and coached him to avoid turnovers above trying to make something happen.

Vick will still Fumble, and he will still throw costly interceptions, but those will happen much less in 2013. With a healthy offensive line, a productive Vick and proven weapons like LeSean McCoy, DeSean Jackson, and Jeremy Maclin with the hopeful emergence of rookie Zach Ertz will create a very potent offense that will win the crazy to predict NFC East.  

I am wrong if the Eagles fail to make the playoffs:  If the Giants or Redskins win 14 games but the Eagles still make the wild card this article still counts as a win.  This is not about the regression of the competition but the nature of talented and smart NFL teams to rebound.  The Eagles are talented, we will see if they are smart.

Odds I am right:  I have a 35% chance.  25% chance they win the division (compared to 35% for the Giants, 25% for the redskins, and 15% for the Cowboys), and a 10% of making the wildcard.