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| Look where Andrew Wiggins' his head is, that is a real 10ft rim. |
Philidelphia 76ers: Arguments For: Philadelphia is a solid market with a good but not great legacy and there would not be too many people crying conspiracy if one of the worst teams in the league won the draft lottery. We know stars from Philadelphia can have national appeal (Iverson, Dr. J). They have rarely sucked or tanked which makes this season forgivable.
Arguments Against: The league does not want to reward obvious tanking.
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| I hope he recovers. Knee trouble destroyed a potential dynasty. |
Arguments Against: There is not enough financial incentive to rig a draft for Portland. Every time Portland wins the lottery their future star develops career limiting injuries. The NBA does not want their next great star to suffer the same fate as Walton, Bowie, and Oden.
Charlotte Bobcats: Arguments For: Charlotte is losing money, or at least making less than they should, and the league does not want Michael Jordan's team to be forced to move. It would be an awesome story for the league to have the team owned by their most famous and marketable player ever draft the next big thing.
Arguments Against: Charlotte is as small as NBA markets get.
Milwaukee Bucks: Arguments For: Milwaukee has suffered as the sacrificial lamb that is the eighth seed enough times to warrant a reward for good behavior should their quest for a painful crushing in the playoffs fall short.
Arguments Against: Milwaukee is facing the same small market crush most teams face.
Cleveland Cavaliers: Arguments For: This is the last step in repaying Cleveland for the pain and suffering caused by Lebron.
Arguments Against: They probably make the playoffs next year, if they are in the lottery their odds of winning will be low. It would show too much favoritism for Cleveland to win the lottery 3 times in 4 years (Silver only gets a few premium draft picks to give out to owners to buy favors, he is not going to waste his first one on a team that already has a strong young core and a chance at Lebron 2014).
Boston Celtics: Arguments For: The league is better when the Celtics are relevant. The Celtics get great ratings. The league has not rigged anything in the Celtics favor for a long time.
Arguments Against: The league does not want to reward obvious tanking.
Atlanta Hawks: Arguments For: Atlanta has enough talent that if they drop into the lottery then add Wiggins they will quickly return to the playoffs (like Carmelo in Denver) and be relevant and profitable. The league would be rewarding a team that does everything it could to try and win.
Arguments Against: It is unlikely that Atlanta misses the playoffs in the top heavy eastern conference. It is going to take less than 38 wins to claim one of the last two eastern playoff slots.
Utah Jazz: Arguments For: Rewarding a team that does everything it can to win every season except this season.
Arguments for the Jazz winning the number 2 pick in the draft: Jabari Parker, the prospect who is almost as good exciting as Andrew Wiggins, is Mormon. He would absolutely be embraced by the state of Utah. With Parker the and several young an talented players the Jazz would quickly morph into contenders, which allows the league to market their young star earlier and more aggressively.
Arguments Against: The Utah Jazz will probably never be a nationally embraced team, and that limits the leagues playoff ratings and money. They could make excellent bad guys (like the 2011 Heat) and fans love a villain (because for some reason Americans love rooting against the boring team that is filled with people who are actually really nice).
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| If you build it, we will come, expesially if there is a a young superstar to watch develop for 7 years before he breaks our collective hearts by moving to L.A. |
Arguments Against: There is no way I am lucky enough for my favorite team to get a franchise altering star.
Arguments Against: Silver might be afraid of making it that obvious it is all rigged in favor of the Lakers.
Orlando Magic: Arguments For: The were also screwed by Dwight.
Arguments Against: They are notoriously unlucky whit star players. Dwight and Shaq leave. Hill was constantly injured. McGrady wore down under the pressure of caring a franchise.
Dallas Mavericks: Arguments For: Dallas can generate good ratings. Mark Cuban is interesting and good for the league. The young star to couple with Dirk would make both more interesting to America in the last years of Dirks career.
Arguments Against: If Dallas does not make the playoff theirs lottery odds are low. Cuban's public personality and brutal honesty often seem to annoy Stern (and possibly by extension Silver) and the other Owners. They may not want to rig things for the guy who cannot be quiet whenever he gets screwed by the league.
Denver Nuggets: It seems Denver is the only team that can epically lose in the 2014 draft as the only team with a completely unprotected pick. Orlando has the choice of the Denver or Nicks 2014 pick, so Denver should be very invested in not being in the lottery. I guess this could also happen to the Nicks, as both Orlando and Denver can claim their pick (if somehow the Nicks and Denver finish 1 and 2 in the draft lottery) but I cannot imagine the Nicks missing the playoffs in the Eastern Conference, they are a playoff team even if Carmelo Anthony does not play a single game, and they will not tank because they have no first round pick.
New Orleans Pelicans: The league wants to reward the team for changing their name and generating new revenue through both selling both retro Hornets jerseys and new Pelicans jerseys. The league wants to succeed in New Orleans even as the rest of america forgets about Katrina. The league still wants to reward the owners who bought the franchise that was once hemorrhaging money in a crushed New Orleans economy. The league still wants to help them after getting ditched by Chris Paul by giving them two first picks, like they did with Cleveland.
Arguments Against: The pelicans already won a significantly good player in Anthony Davis to build around. They will be close to the playoffs if not in them. They will be a playoff team soon even if they do not get a top pick this year.
Detroit Pistons: Detroit is a popular franchise who's biggest star (Isiah Thomas) was a villain more than a star. They have enough talent to quickly become a contender. They have played in some highly rated finals.
Arguments Against: America never attached itself to the pistons, even when they were great. They have been in one of the worst rated finals ever (Spurs Vs Pistons).
Toronto Raptors: Arguments For: What better way to get Canadian fans to watch the Canadian team than to have the best Canadian prospect ever drafted by them.
Arguments Against: The league does not seem to care about Toronto. They have been spurned by several superstars in embarrassing fashion and they are only rewarded with the top pick in the lousy 2006 Bargnani draft.
Phoenix Suns: The suns get good ratings. They can hold onto a superstar which avoiding creating embarrassment for the league (which they do not mind considering how much revenue all the drama generates). They will truly be bad, so they need the help and no one will accuse them of rigging the draft.
Argument Against: Phoenix is another city that never seems to get NBA draft lottery love.
Minnesota TimberWolves: Arguments For: Their name is awesome. They would be a super exciting team with Rubio, Love and 2014 draft superstar. Seriously, this team would get tons of national and international love with this roster. The Canadian Wiggins might not mind living in Minnesota.
Arguments Against: Minnesota has no history of the NBA rigging things in its favor.
Washington Wizards: Arguments For: With their talented core they would quickly progress into a contender. Washington is a larger market than people realize and it is largely untapped by the NBA because of the Wizard's continued mediocrity.
Arguments Against: They already won the draft lottery recently. They will likely make the eastern playoffs.
So, with the league conspiring to make every possible team a lottery a winner while also conspiring to keep many from winning any way the ping pong balls fall it was absolutely part of a grand design by the league, because life is much more interesting with conspiracy theories, and there is so much more for the internet to complain about.
I am wrong if there is no real national complaining about rigging: The complaining will be ubiquitous among NBA followers if the Lakers jump to one of the top draft picks (except of course Lakers fans, many of whom deny that they get favorable treatment from refs) . If the Utah Jazz jump the complaints will likely be minimal, it is just less interesting to accuse the league of rigging in favor of the Utah Jazz.
Odds I am Right: The Lakers and Celtics will generate by far the most complaining about rigging, followed by the Bobcats, and Kings (even though teams are exactly who should be winning the lottery). The Cavaliers, Magic, and Pelicans would generate grumbling because of their recent lottery luck and loss of a superstar. I will include the Mavericks because Dallas-Fort Worth media market is huge (7th after the SF/Oakland/San Jose area). That is only 8 out of 18 possible teams (there are only 14 teams in the lottery, I do not know which 4 will fill out the early playoff losers). For simplicity I will assume every team has equal lottery odds (though everyone expects the Bobcats to have near a 20% chance and the Mavericks would have near a 1% chance, but I do not want to multiply each projected record of the teams that would create conspiracy complaints by their equivalent lottery odds to generate reasonable lottery expectations, and then total it (and maybe divide by 100%) to generate the expected odds of complaining. 8/18=44.44%
Odds I am Wrong: 10/18=55.55%
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