Aldon Smith is more than Justin Smiths glamorous shadow.

Giving Justin credit for Aldon's success devalues how great
they are together.

For the San Fransisco 49er defense the narrative at the end of the year was clear "Since Justin Smith was injured against the Patriots Aldon Smith has recorded 0 sacks.  Clearly Aldon cannot produce without Justin."  It is tempting to fall into that narrative, but that is a classic example of confusing correlation and causation.  Is Justin Smith a great player? Absolutely.  Is it harder on Aldon when without Jusitn?  Again Absolutely.  Does that mean that Aldon Smith is over rated because he is useless without Justin?  Not at all.  It is time to break down some of the myths of the end of the season.

The sample size in the NFL is tiny:  In weeks 3-6 Aldon only recorded sacks in one of those games, two against the jets.  In the other 3 games he was shut out.  Does this mean he was ineffective due to some injury or scheme?  Probably not, the game is largely random.  Some plays the quarterback rolls towards Aldon, others towards Justin or towards Brooks, or he is able to throw the ball away.  Over the next 7 games Aldon was able to pull down an amazing 15.  There is no magical explination for that jump in productivity. Aldon is a great player on a great defense and over that span the plays just happened to break his way.  The real difference between the first cold run and that at the end of the season is that the second came with the media focused on Aldon and his pursuit of the sack record (and greater attention on the 'Niners as contenders at the end of the season).  Great players get great numbers, but they often come in random bursts.  We praise the great production and criticize the below average play, while ignoring that the fluctuation is normal.

Aldon was not only limited by Justin's injury, he was also playing with a torn labrum:  The difference between the defense recording a sack or a hurry is one step.  I remember several plays through the end of the season and playoffs where Aldon Smith was one step from pulling down the QB.  Maybe without that injury he could shed his blocker a shade faster and gain that extra step.  

Next season I hope he gets him.

The quality of competition matters:  The cold streak of games where Aldon recorded zero sacks started against the Patriots and continued against Seahawks and Cardinals to end the regular season.  The Patriots and Seahawks were the 3rd and 4th best teams at avoiding sacks so it should not be a surprise that an individual player did not record a sack in an individual game.  Additionally, Aldon had several chances to get Russell Wilson but was too aggressive in his pursuit, allowing Wilson to roll out of contain.  With better preparation for Wilson's speed Aldon may take a better angle and pin him down.  There is no excuse for not recording a sack against the Cardinals, the worst team in the league at protecting the passer.  In the playoffs the 'Niners faced the Packers, Falcons, and Ravens.  The ravens were among the leagues best in avoiding sacks, and even better in the playoffs.  Even though Green Bay and Atlanta did not perform well in their season long sack percentage it is still hard to pressure elite quarterbacks like Rogers and Ryan.  

Aldon was still a very productive player during that run:  In that "cold streak" Aldon recorded his first ever interception, a crucial turnover in a win over the patriots.  He also recovered a crucial fumble in the NFC championship game when Atlanta was moving the ball on their scoring side of the field.  Those turnovers plus the pressure he did generate undermines the narrative that Aldon was ineffective without a healthy Justin Smith.  

Justin Smith cannot magically manufacture production for any bit piece:  The narrative that Justin is responsible for Aldon's production properly rates how important Justin is to the 'Niners defense, but ignores the special skills Aldon possesses.  Aldon produced 19.5 sacks in 2012, that is a rare level of success.  He tallied 14 as a rookie.  in 2010 (Before Aldon was drafted) 'Niners team best was 8.5 for Justin Smith, he was only able to manufacture 6 for Patrick Willis or 5 for Ahmad Brooks.  In 2009 it was 6.5 for Manny Lawson, 6 for Justin Smith, and 6 for Brooks.  If Justin is so responsible for Aldon's production, why was he not able to create for anyone else?  Because while Justin is great and they are great together, Aldon is probably also great on his own, we just have not had a sample size large enough to see it.  

The Prediction:  Justin Smith is a decade older than Aldon Smith (born 1979 and 89 respectively).  Justin is trying to win a title and maybe make hall of fame consideration before he retires.  Aldon Smith is just starting his career (though with roughly the same goals).  Aldon will continue to be one of the best pass rushers in the NFL well after Justin retires. 

I am right if:  If Aldon tallies at least 14 sacks 5 times after Justin turns 35 he will prove he was never dependent on Justin for production.  I am also right if Aldon records 20 sacks in 1 season after Justin turns 35.  

I am wrong if:  If Aldon never produces a great season (16 sacks or more) without Justin.  Any result between those achievements is debatable.  If Aldon has two 14 sack seasons after Justin retires, then is is plagued by injuries we would have incomplete information to answer the debate.