Dwight Howard will stay in LA-the worst choice for everyone.

I have no real reason to predict that Dwight will stay a Laker except a gut feeling that Howard will make the worst decision for everyone involved.  How so?  Let me explain:

Dwight Howard: Dwight is at his best when surrounded by athletic shooters who defend the three point line and create space for him to wreak havoc against individual-slower and weaker-defenders.  

Worst Fit:  As a Laker Dwight will be forced to share the paint with Kobe, Artest, and Gasol.  Only Kobe can stretch the floor to a decent degree, and he has never been an efficient outside shooter.  To compile the problem, none of the locked in Lakers can capably defend against 3 point shooters.  The worst aspect of this is that it would be exceptionally hard to trade any of their old expensive players for better fitting role players.  The league knows there is a premium for athletic defenders who can shoot, and you are not going to get one for an expensive aging star.  

Best Fit: Either Golden State or Houston can put Howard in the system where he was super successful in Orlando, except with far superior creators in Steph Curry and James Harden.  Plus, both those teams have multiple players who are above average (or at least average) at running out at 3 point shooters.  

I did say the worst choice for everyone; this is how it affects everyone else:

Kobe: Kobe is stuck with Dwight, Artest, Pau, and Nash, as the last few years of his career are wasted because there are no movable assets.  He spends his energy making angry faces at his teammates whenever they miss a contested jumper or he blows a defensive assignment.  

Nash: Nash does not have a teammate to run a pick and pop, and his gifts are wasted as the offense is painfully predictable.  

Pau: Gasol is stuck trying to create space for a far less efficient post player and he generates an aneurysm from Kobe and Lakers fans blaming him for everything wrong with the Lakers.

Artest: World Peace is becoming a disaster of a fit with the Lakers as he can no longer defend fast opponents nor can he create offense facing a clogged lane, armed with only a mediocre jumper. 

Houston: The Rockets miss their best chance to become a contender, an opportunity unlikely to surface again.  

Golden State: The warriors are too dependent on injury prone players; they never have both Bogut and Curry available for a playoff run at the same time, squandering their exciting potential.  

Winners: San Antonio, Miami, OKC

I am wrong if: Dwight goes to Houston or Golden State, or the Lakers are able to trade Gasol and/or World Peace for a stretch defender.
Odds of my being wrong: Pretty damn high.  Dwight might pick the right team, but more likely some GM will inexplicably gift the Lakers the kinds of athletic shooters they desperately need when they could absolutely have gotten a better deal elsewhere.  I estimate a 25% chance I am actually right, but writing about the disaster is far more entertaining.