I apologize to Anthony Bennitt that he is the negative focus of my first real prediction. He seems like a decent young man and a decent player. That is exactly the problem, he will have a decent career, and that is simply not enough for the expectations of the number 1 overall pick.
Bennett is a 'tweener.' Specifically he is a 'tweener' forward: someone who is too small/weak to be a traditional power forward while being too slow to be a small forward. To be effective these in-between-two-positions players must make up for their traditional deficiencies by overpowering one position while being too quick for the other. A player like that can be useful, especially against a teams less athletic reserve players, but useful is not enough to be a star. The game of a 'tweener' depends on an inherent flaw in his opposition. Their games are designed to exploit a defenders lack of either quickness, strength, or size. The top NBA players/teams are experts at covering their weaknesses, and the truly superior defenders do not have them.
The top player in the draft should be able to expose their opponents weaknesses, but they should still at least be effective when is no weakness. Andrew Bogut headlined a similarly flawed and unpredictable draft, and he was a disapointment compared to Chris Paul, but he still has the size and strength of a true center and a near elite ability to anchor a defense.
Bennitt's career at best will be like that of a Paul Milsap or Jeff Green. Both are good players, but not worthy of the top pick in the draft.
The prediction: Bennitt will have a solid career, maybe a 6th man award, but he will never start in all star game, he will never make an all pro team, and he will never be a true star.
Odds I am wrong: I am wrong if he starts in the all star game, or makes the all pro team. I only put that at a 5% chance, and I think that is a little high.
No comments:
Post a Comment