NFL playoff predictions, the 'obvious' choices

These men had to play outside of their divisions to find a
worthy rival.  

The NFL playoffs are notoriously difficult to predict because every year 2 too 6 playoff teams fail to return, and every year at least one losing team seems to make a leap into the playoffs.

In spite of that annual upheaval some things are predictable.  Great quarterbacks tend to find a way to get their team into the playoffs.  Brady, Manning, Rogers, and Brees tend to be in the dance even while their team talent is reloading.  Lopsided divisions also allow for some (often false) security while predicting.  The Houston Texans were a safe bet to make the 2013 playoffs because their division looked so soft going into 2012.

A great quarterback in an 'easy' division is where predicting becomes predictable.  Since Tom Brady took over as the starting quarterback for The New England Patriots in 2001 they have made the playoffs every year except two (both were lost by tiebreakers, and for one Brady was injured).  Tom Brady's career winning percentage is 77.7%, that means that if he plays a full 16 game season you can expect the Patriots to win around 12 games.  It is hard to miss the playoffs while wining so prodigiously.  What makes the AFC east such a route is the relative mediocrity of the Patriots competition over that time.  In the 12 year Brady era the Patriots' division rivals have only fielded 7 teams that were able to win 10 games (The minimum number of wins I expect a team should win to be in the playoff hunt), so in 5 of 12 Brady years there was no real alternative to the Patriots winning that division.  The Tom Brady era has never faced a division rival that won 12 or more games.  Tom Brady's average season has been enough to win the division every season he has played.

That is why predicting a great quarterback in a bad division is easy.  I could have easily written that same article about Peyton Manning except I would have to account for some elite squads from Tennessee.

These two never made the division championship easy
for each other, but this rivalry should always be about
awesome team defense.

Easy divisions are not only defined by the teams at the top, but also those at the bottom.  A division can produce two title contenders and still be an easy division so long as the other two teams provide fodder for the winning teams.  Before Andy Dalton was drafted by the Bengals the Steelers and Ravens routinely faced each other in the playoffs.  This was because both were great teams, but also because with a few exceptions both teams were able to feast on the hapless Browns and Bengals for 4 wins to pad their win total for a wild card race.  When Tennessee fielded elite teams to compete against Manning's Colts it was much easier for one to win the wild card race when the Texans and Jaguars were terrible for most of a decade.

When is this model wrong?
When the elite quarterback is injured this model falls apart:  When Brady and Manning missed a season their teams were out of the playoffs.  That can happen at any time.
An 'easy' division can be fools gold:  In 2011 I thought that Harbaugh and the Niners were going to own the NFC West.  In 2012 we saw one division rival draft a franchise quarterback and another trade a (the rights to) a franchise quarterback for a kings ransom in draft picks.  Now our division appears to be a unpredictable slug fest similar to the Bengals-Steelers-Ravens battles in the AFC North.
It is about more than the quarterback:  Even elite quarterbacks need support; the opportunity was there for Drew Brees or Eli Manning to force their team into the 2013 wildcard but the competition at the top of their divisions and the NFC was too much for them to overcome while their teams were not able to field their best talent (or coach) week to week.

A great quarterback can help a team to a championship but
even these two cannot guarantee making it into the playoffs.

Who does this prediction fit? Technically this is just an extension of yesterdays prediction.  The Broncos and Patriots will have a relatively easy path too the playoffs in spite of important personnel losses, because their elite quarterbacks know how to clean up in easy divisions.  (The K.C. Chiefs will also make the playoffs out of the AFC West, as both playoff teams will be buoyed by 4 games against the Chargers and Raiders whom I project to be terrible).

Who does this prediction not fit?  Everyone else.  The Niners, Seahawks, Saints, Packers, Ravens, Bengals, Redskins, or Giants, all all projected playoff teams that field elite (or soon to be elite) quarterbacks but they play in divisions that are too difficult (a.k.a. unpredictable) for this model.

This does not apply to the Texans or Chiefs because they have good but not elite quarterbacks, but both play in relatively easy divisions.